World Bank Warns of Persistent Poverty and Unemployment as Growth Remains Fragile

The Economic and Monetary Community of Central Africa (CEMAC) experienced a moderate rebound in economic growth in 2024, with GDP expanding by 3.0%, up from 2.0% in 2023, according to the 8th CEMAC Economic Barometer published by the World Bank. Despite the upward trend, the region remains highly dependent on hydrocarbons and commodities, sectors that continue to provide limited employment opportunities, especially for its growing youth population.

The semi-annual report offers a comprehensive overview of macroeconomic developments in the six CEMAC countries—Cameroon, Central African Republic, Chad, Republic of the Congo, Equatorial Guinea, and Gabon—while stressing the urgency for reforms to diversify the economy, attract private investment, and address rising poverty.

Commodity Dependence Leaves Region Exposed

The report underscores CEMAC’s continued vulnerability to global oil price fluctuations, noting that oil accounts for over two-thirds of the region's total merchandise exports. In 2024, a drop in global oil prices led to a deterioration of fiscal and external balances, with notable declines in:

• Foreign exchange reserves

• Budgetary positions

• Trade balances

While inflationary pressures have begun to ease, the broader economic picture remains troubling, with youth unemployment high and extreme poverty affecting nearly one-third of the population.

“A third of CEMAC’s population—approximately 22 million people—are living on less than US$2.15 a day,” the report highlights, using 2017 purchasing power parity benchmarks.

Outlook: Continued Modest Growth, High Risks

Growth projections for the 2025–2027 period remain subdued, with GDP forecast to hover around 2.9% annually—insufficient to make a significant dent in unemployment or poverty.

CEMAC's abundant natural resource wealth, including minerals, hydrocarbons, forests, and arable land, alongside a young, urbanizing population, offer potential for transformative development. However, this potential remains largely untapped due to inadequate infrastructure, weak institutional capacity, and an underdeveloped private sector.

“CEMAC countries need to create better conditions for local firms to grow, invest, hire, and export,” said Robert Utz, World Bank Lead Economist for the region and the report’s lead author.

A Roadmap for Structural Transformation

The report calls for urgent implementation of regional and national reform plans, such as:

• PREF-CEMAC II (CEMAC’s Economic and Financial Reform Program)

• The upcoming Regional Economic Program (REP)

These initiatives aim to:

• Diversify the economy

• Enhance public financial management

• Improve investment climates

• Foster regional integration and intra-African trade

• Support vulnerable populations with social safety nets

“It is essential for CEMAC countries to accelerate reforms to create inclusive and resilient growth,” said Cheick Fantamady Kanté, World Bank Division Director for Cameroon, Congo, Gabon, Central African Republic, and Equatorial Guinea.

Challenges Ahead: External and Domestic Risks

The Barometer also outlines key risks that threaten to stall progress:

• Volatile global commodity prices

• Sluggish international demand for CEMAC exports

• Cuts in foreign aid and development finance

• High debt servicing costs

• Mounting pressures on public spending, particularly in social and infrastructure sectors

Without decisive policy shifts, these risks could further constrain the region’s economic recovery and social stability.

Private Sector: A Missing Engine of Growth

A central message of the report is the need to empower domestic enterprises, particularly small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs), which remain hampered by:

• Limited access to credit

• Weak legal and regulatory environments

• Poor infrastructure and logistics

• High operating costs

Improving the business environment would not only spur investment and productivity but also create much-needed jobs, especially for youth and women.

Inclusive Development Requires Political Will

The World Bank emphasizes that sustainable development in CEMAC hinges on the political will to implement and enforce reforms, as well as on regional cooperation to harmonize regulations and reduce barriers to trade and investment.

“CEMAC’s natural wealth and youthful population can fuel dynamic growth, but only if governments commit to building institutions that support innovation, accountability, and inclusion,” the report concludes.

With persistent poverty and inequality eroding social cohesion, accelerating economic reforms is not just a growth imperative—but a moral and political necessity for the region’s future.