India's Monsoon Rainfall Boosts Kharif Crop Prospects Amid Uneven Distribution

As of June 24, India's cumulative monsoon rainfall is 4% above the Long Period Average (LPA), marking an encouraging start to the season. According to ICICI Bank research, this slight surplus is poised to enhance Kharif crop production in regions that have received ample rainfall.

The report, citing CEIC and IMD data, highlights Rajasthan at 135% and Gujarat at 134% above LPA, as top recipients of excess rainfall among Kharif states. Other major producers, including Madhya Pradesh, Uttar Pradesh, Tamil Nadu, and Karnataka, have also received above-average rainfall, with Punjab matching the LPA.

This timely and widespread rainfall is expected to boost sowing and growth of crops, potentially elevating agricultural output. However, regions like Telangana, Chhattisgarh, Andhra Pradesh, and Bihar face rainfall shortages that may threaten Kharif sowing and yields. While the monsoon began weakly, it improved significantly in late June, yet the distribution remains uneven. Kharif sowing is 10.4% up year-on-year, with notable rises in rice, pulses, and cereals, though oilseeds and jute have seen a slight decline. Ongoing rain patterns will be critical for final outcomes.

(With inputs from agencies.)