Syria’s Economy Set for Modest Rebound in 2025 Despite Fragile Conditions: World Bank

Syria’s battered economy is projected to register a modest GDP growth of 1% in 2025, following a sharp contraction of 1.5% in 2024, according to the “Syria Macro Fiscal Assessment 2025” released today by the World Bank. While the report identifies some limited upside potential stemming from a recent easing of sanctions, it emphasizes that structural challenges, liquidity crises, and security concerns continue to weigh heavily on Syria’s economic recovery.

The report delivers a sobering yet cautiously optimistic assessment of Syria’s macroeconomic and fiscal landscape, shaped by 14 years of protracted conflict, sanctions, and economic mismanagement. Since 2010, Syria’s GDP has shrunk by over 50%, with Gross National Income (GNI) per capita plummeting to just $830 in 2024—placing the country well below the international low-income threshold.

“Economic data for Syria is extremely scarce and hard to come by. This macro-fiscal assessment bridges critical information gaps and provides an important foundation for policy dialogue to revitalize economic growth and bring prosperity to Syria,” said Jean-Christophe Carret, World Bank Middle East Division Director.

Deep Economic Scars and Widespread Poverty

The report paints a stark picture of Syria’s post-conflict economy. Once a middle-income nation, Syria now struggles with extreme poverty affecting one in four citizens, while two-thirds of the population live below the lower-middle-income poverty line.

Syria’s financial infrastructure remains severely weakened, with a shortage of physical currency, limited access to international banking systems, and a large share of the economy operating informally or illicitly. These trends have hampered trade, humanitarian aid, and investment, leaving the state with limited fiscal space.

Transitional Reforms and the Search for Recovery

Despite these daunting realities, the Syrian transitional government has launched a series of economic reforms aimed at stabilizing the macroeconomic environment. The reforms include efforts to:

• Unify fiscal and monetary policies

• Enhance governance and transparency in public finance

• Attract foreign investment and renew aid commitments

“Syria today is a land of opportunities, with immense potential across every sector,” said Minister of Finance H.E. Yisr Barnieh. “We are optimistic and confident that our economy will soon achieve higher growth and resume a path of sustainable development.”

The government is also focusing on rebuilding domestic credibility and streamlining its policy environment to appeal to investors and development partners.

Sanctions, Oil Imports, and Regional Prospects

Sanctions remain one of the most significant barriers to Syria’s economic recovery. Although there has been a marginal easing, critical hurdles such as frozen assets, energy import restrictions, and limited humanitarian access persist. These continue to affect fuel availability, stoke inflation, and prevent Syria from accessing the international banking system.

The oil and gas sector, once a cornerstone of Syria’s economy, remains constrained. The report underscores that resolving disputes over resource-sharing and governance between Damascus and northeastern authorities could unlock national production and ease Syria’s energy crisis.

Moreover, increased regional engagement, particularly from Türkiye and several Gulf countries, is identified as a potential catalyst for recovery. Such diplomatic and economic re-engagement could help Syria reintegrate into regional markets and encourage foreign direct investment.

Refugee Returns as a Potential Economic Driver

One potential bright spot is the return of refugees and internally displaced persons (IDPs). If managed effectively—and if sanctions are relaxed to enable job creation and investment—the return of Syrians could help revitalize consumer demand, rebuild labor markets, and support reconstruction in the medium term.

Outlook: Growth with High Risks

The World Bank’s baseline forecast of 1% GDP growth in 2025 reflects tentative optimism, but the outlook remains fragile and deeply uncertain. Major risks include:

• Ongoing security threats

• Inflation and fuel shortages

• Delays in reforms and weak institutional capacity

• Continued international isolation

However, the report stresses that with coordinated policy actions, improved governance, and strategic partnerships, Syria could lay the groundwork for a longer-term recovery.