India's June 2025 Trade Dynamics: Electronics Surge Amidst Import Slowdown

India's trade dynamics for June 2025 reveal a complex picture, marked by a decline in merchandise imports and a steady hold on exports, as per the latest analysis by the Global Trade Research Initiative (GTRI). According to data released by the Ministry of Commerce on Tuesday, the nation witnessed merchandise exports at USD 35.14 billion, an almost negligible 0.05 percent rise compared to June last year.

Amidst this overall flat performance, the electronics sector stood out, exhibiting a significant 47.1 percent increase, totaling USD 2.8 billion. This surge is attributed to rising shipments of iPhones and smartphones to the United States, in response to anticipated U.S. tariff hikes. Traditional sectors, particularly gems and jewellery, reported a 20.4 percent drop to USD 1.78 billion, while petroleum product exports fell 15.9 percent to USD 4.6 billion, reflecting the impact of softening global demand and lower crude prices. On the import front, total goods imports contracted to USD 53.9 billion, a 3.7 percent decrease from the previous year. Leading this decline was a significant 25.7 percent plunge in gold imports, down to USD 7.5 billion, and an 8.4 percent reduction in crude and petroleum imports, amounting to USD 13.8 billion. Coal and coke imports decreased by 19.1 percent to USD 7.75 billion, indicating improved domestic supply conditions.

Even as electronics imports rose by 9.5 percent to USD 8.4 billion, and machinery and computer imports grew by 8.5 percent to USD 4.4 billion, the data suggested a resilient domestic investment in assembly and manufacturing sectors. The U.S. retained its position as India's leading export market, with exports jumping 23.5 percent to USD 8.3 billion. Conversely, exports to China showed modest growth at USD 1.4 billion, marking a 17.2 percent year-on-year increase. Despite a 2.5 percent rise in imports, with USD 9.5 billion worth of goods sourced from China, the trade data for June 2025 reflects an ongoing structural transformation in India's export profile, highlighting a shift towards high-import-intensity sectors like electronics, as traditional labor-intensive sectors show signs of stagnation.

(With inputs from agencies.)