Global Oil Market Faces Rising Prices Amid Geopolitical Tensions

Global oil markets are bracing for increased prices as persistent geopolitical tensions between the United States and Russia loom over the supply chain. Market analysts forecast a rise in Brent crude to around USD 80 per barrel, influenced by potential disruptions in supply and evolving global trade restrictions.

Industry expert NS Ramaswamy from Ventura warns of escalating prices, highlighting a short-term Brent target of USD 76 and a year-end closing possibility of USD 80-82. This sentiment follows U.S. President Donald Trump's ultimatum to Russia to conclude the war in Ukraine, with a looming threat of further sanctions which could compound the oil price surge.

The complex scenario could lead oil importers dependent on Russian crude to face steep tariffs or seek alternative suppliers. Dynamics are similar for WTI crude oil, expected to hit USD 73-79 by late 2025. With limited capacity to boost US production swiftly, expert insight from Narendra Taneja suggests a severe supply shock could result in prices ranging between USD 100-120 per barrel.

Even if OPEC countries ramp up supply to bridge deficits, it could exert short-term pressure, while US-EU trade agreements offer minimal relief amid confrontational geopolitics. Key market players are also attuned to US inventory data and the implications of a strengthening dollar on oil prices, as Sino-US trade relations bring cautious optimism.

(With inputs from agencies.)