India's Import Surge Overshadows Export Growth: RBI Survey Insights

India's merchandise imports are anticipated to grow at twice the rate of exports for the current financial year, according to the newest survey by the Reserve Bank of India (RBI). Revealed in the 95th round of the Survey of Professional Forecasters on Macroeconomic Indicators, the findings were published on Wednesday.

The data showcases that merchandise imports could experience a growth of 2.5% in 2025-26, significantly surpassing merchandise export growth of 1.2%. Subsequently, this could impact the country's current account deficit (CAD), projected at 0.8% of GDP for 2025-26 and slightly increasing to 0.9% in 2026-27, all assessed in US dollar terms.

Further, the survey offers insight into the broader economic picture with India's real GDP expected to grow by 6.4% in 2025-26 and 6.7% in 2026-27. This falls short of the RBI's 6.5% forecast. Meanwhile, GDP growth for these years is estimated to range from 6.0% to 7.7%, with the majority of forecasts centered around 6.0-6.9% growth for 2025-26 and 6.5-6.9% for 2026-27.

Examining other economic indicators, real private final consumption expenditure (PFCE) is projected to increase by 6.5% in 2025-26, followed by 6.9% in 2026-27. Real gross fixed capital formation (GFCF) is expected to see increases of 6.8% and 7.2% during the same time frame. Inflation based on the Consumer Price Index (CPI) is foreseen at 3.1% for 2025-26, inching up to 4.4% in 2026-27.

The survey also includes projections of CPI inflation, excluding food, beverages, and other specified categories, with figures expected to be around 4.4% in Q2 of 2025-26, maintaining within a range of 4.3-4.5% in ensuing quarters.

(With inputs from agencies.)