India's Economic Surge: Navigating Tariffs and Growth Challenges

In a surprising turn of events, India's economy expanded by 7.8% year-on-year in the April-June quarter, surpassing the 7.4% growth in the previous quarter. This stronger-than-expected performance confounded economists, who had anticipated a cooling to 6.7% due to impending U.S. tariffs on Indian exports.

Madhavi Arora from Emkay Global underscores that the growth was propelled by strategic government spending, a softer deflator, and exports to the U.S. However, these factors may not sustain, especially with a 50% tariff hike looming, threatening to impact exports, employment, and ultimately, private investment.

While the first quarter's numbers have been robust, experts like Upasna Bhardwaj from Kotak Mahindra Bank caution about the potential slowdown ahead. The impacts of the tariffs could dampen private consumption, though GST cuts might provide a temporary buffer. Overall, the Indian economy remains on a growth trajectory despite challenges.

(With inputs from agencies.)