Devastating Rains: Floods Threaten India's Crop Yields

According to a recent report by Crisil, persistent heavy rains and flooding have caused significant damage to crops in several parts of the country. Punjab and Rajasthan have been notably impacted, experiencing major crop losses, while other states have seen more localized effects. The report emphasizes that the upcoming weeks will be crucial for the agriculture sector's recovery.

September's rainfall pattern is expected to be critical, with the India Meteorological Department forecasting above-normal precipitation across northern and central India. This period aligns with essential growth stages for crops like paddy, cotton, soybean, maize, and onion, making it vital for determining crop health and yield. As of September 2, cumulative rainfall was approximately 7% above the long-term average, with significant excess reported in states such as Jharkhand, Punjab, Himachal Pradesh, Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh, and Telangana.

In Punjab, the situation is dire, with August's rainfall being 74% above normal, flooding around 70,000 hectares of farmland out of its total 4.24 million hectares of arable land. Key crops like paddy, sugarcane, and cotton have been submerged across multiple districts. The report outlines major risks, including waterlogging in paddy fields, increased red rot disease in sugarcane, and flower drop and pink bollworm infestation in cotton, all of which threaten to reduce yields significantly.

The southwest monsoon, responsible for nearly 76% of India's annual rainfall, plays a critical role in agriculture and the economy. In Haryana's border districts with Punjab such as Sirsa, Fatehabad, and Jind, spillover effects have caused stress in paddy fields, resulting in premature flowering and bolting, indicating decreased output.

Tomato crops have been moderately affected, and the sowing of carrots was delayed in August due to waterlogging. In Rajasthan, heavy rainfall has caused extensive damage to bajra, jowar, soybean, groundnut, green gram, and black gram in areas like Ajmer, Tonk, Kota, Bundi, Jaipur, and Dausa.

Localized damage was also reported in Uttar Pradesh along the banks of the Yamuna and Ganga rivers and their tributaries. Meanwhile, Andhra Pradesh, Karnataka, and Telangana faced varied impacts with paddy, maize, and cotton largely unaffected but yields of pulses like black gram and green gram declining due to flower drop.

Crisil warns that erratic rainfall poses a substantial risk to inflation, as food constitutes 47% of the Consumer Price Index basket, significantly affecting household spending in both rural and urban settings. Further production losses could escalate supply-side pressures, exacerbate food inflation risks, and destabilize prices and consumption patterns.