World Bank Warns Climate Change Could Cut Uganda’s Growth by 3.1% by 2050

Uganda faces stark economic and social risks if urgent action is not taken to address the worsening impacts of climate change, according to the Country Climate and Development Report (CCDR) launched by the World Bank Group in Kampala. The report paints a sobering picture: without strong mitigation and adaptation measures, climate change could reduce Uganda’s economic growth by up to 3.1% by 2050, push more than 613,000 people into poverty, and turn 12 million Ugandans into internal migrants.

Uganda Among the Most Climate-Vulnerable Nations

Uganda is ranked as the 14th most climate-vulnerable country in the world, making it highly susceptible to rising temperatures, changing rainfall patterns, and extreme weather events. The CCDR highlights that climate change could lower labor productivity by up to 2.4% due to heat stress, threaten 21% of Uganda’s electricity network, and cause annual road damages of up to US$26 million.

Speaking at the launch, Qimiao Fan, World Bank Director for Kenya, Rwanda, Somalia, and Uganda, said Uganda faces a defining moment:

“Climate action is not only essential but offers an opportunity to redefine the country’s development trajectory. The CCDR provides a roadmap for integrating climate considerations into national policies and investments, ensuring that growth is sustainable, inclusive, and climate resilient.”

Four Key Intervention Packages

The report proposes four multisectoral intervention packages, supported by broader economy-wide reforms and strong private sector engagement, to put Uganda on a path of climate-positive growth.

1. Boosting resilience through youth jobs and social services

   • Expand shock-responsive social protection and digital financial services such as climate insurance.

   • Strengthen climate-resilient health systems, water, sanitation, and hygiene.

   • Promote education and job placement in climate-resilient occupations, ensuring Uganda’s large youth population is equipped for green jobs.

2. Advancing sustainable agriculture and natural resources

   • Scale up irrigation without overusing water sources.

   • Improve livestock productivity while cutting methane emissions.

   • Protect forests and biodiversity, reduce reliance on firewood and charcoal, and accelerate the adoption of clean cooking technologies.

3. Investing in climate-smart infrastructure

   • Scale renewable energy sources like hydropower and solar to meet rising demand.

   • Develop climate-resilient roads, transport, and digital networks for rural and underserved communities.

   • Support sustainable mining of energy transition minerals critical for low-carbon growth.

   • Strengthen logistics and transport infrastructure to make Uganda competitive in a green economy.

4. Planning for climate-positive urbanization

   • Integrate climate risk projections into urban planning and infrastructure.

   • Promote decentralized climate action, empowering local authorities.

   • Expand green building materials, e-mobility, and sustainable public transport systems to reduce greenhouse gas emissions.

The Role of the Private Sector

The CCDR emphasizes that private sector engagement will be crucial to Uganda’s transition. According to Mary Porter Peschka, International Finance Corporation (IFC) Director for Eastern Africa:

“Private investment in climate-smart agriculture, solar irrigation, renewable energy, e-mobility, and green building can enhance food security, energy access, and livable cities—while creating jobs and driving economic growth. By fostering private engagement in climate-resilient projects, Uganda can build a greener and more prosperous future.”

Policy Priorities and Institutional Strengthening

For Uganda to achieve climate-positive growth, the report highlights several cross-cutting actions:

• Implement the National Climate Finance Strategy to mobilize both domestic and international resources.

• Integrate climate considerations into public procurement, PPPs, fiscal policy, and financial regulations.

• Strengthen disaster risk management systems, ensuring better preparedness for floods, droughts, and other climate shocks.

• Adapt trade policies to access global markets for low-carbon goods and services.

• Expand real-time climate data collection and early warning systems, making them accessible for households, firms, and communities.

• Enhance green finance, affordable insurance, and carbon markets to attract private investment.

A Call to Action

Uganda’s economy relies heavily on climate-sensitive sectors such as agriculture, energy, and natural resources. With a rapidly growing youth population and increasing urbanization, climate change presents both challenges and opportunities. The CCDR makes it clear that early, decisive, and coordinated action can transform Uganda’s vulnerability into resilience and its risks into new avenues for growth.

If implemented effectively, the recommendations could help Uganda avoid climate-induced setbacks, create thousands of green jobs, and foster inclusive, sustainable economic development for decades to come.