Adani Power: Dominating India's Energy Sector

Adani Power Limited (APL) has reinforced its status as India's leading private coal-based independent power producer, boasting a sprawling 18,150 MW portfolio across 12 sites in eight states, as highlighted by a recent Morgan Stanley analysis. APL has adeptly transformed 4,370 MW of distressed assets, with an additional 2,900 MW being integrated.

Dubbing itself a formidable coal franchise, Adani Power commands an 8 percent stake in India's coal capacity and generation, second only to NTPC. Projections indicate APL's market share could soar to 15 percent by FY32, driven by a robust pipeline of 41.9 GW, rendering its portfolio 2.5 times larger.

The company's prowess in reviving troubled assets is notable, as showcased by the 1,370 MW Raipur plant's EBITDA leaping twelvefold between acquisition in 2019 and FY25. Similarly, the 1,200 MW Mahan plant quadrupled EBITDA in three years post-acquisition, evidencing financial upturns. Recent FY25 acquisitions are poised to enhance earnings further.

Financial metrics have dramatically improved, with net debt-to-EBITDA ratios plummeting from 9.7x in FY19 to 1.8x in FY25. Regulatory hurdles have been favorably navigated, and landmark projects, like the Mundra and Godda plants, illustrate APL's swift execution capabilities.

The resolution of regulatory concerns continues as the Supreme Court dismissed claims from a speculative report and SEBI cleared the Adani group. Morgan Stanley has initiated coverage of APL with an 'Overweight' rating and a target price of Rs 818, suggesting a 30 percent potential rise. APL's capacity and EBITDA are projected to triple by FY33.

(With inputs from agencies.)