Global Trade Forecast Slump: WTO Revises 2026 Predictions Amid U.S. Tariffs
The WTO has reduced its 2026 forecast for global trade volume growth to 0.5% due to the delayed impact of tariffs imposed by U.S. President Donald Trump. Nonetheless, trade systems showed resilience in 2025, bolstered by a spike in imports and AI-related goods trading.
The World Trade Organization (WTO) has dramatically adjusted its forecast for global merchandise trade volume growth in 2026, reducing it to a mere 0.5%. This downgrade comes amid the expected prolonged effects of tariffs instituted by U.S. President Donald Trump. The previous forecast, from August, had estimated 1.8% growth, highlighting the extent of the revision.
Despite the grim outlook for next year, WTO Director-General Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala conveyed some optimism, noting that the world trading system is demonstrating resilience. In 2025, global trade volume growth is projected to improve to 2.4%, up from an earlier estimate of 0.9%, largely due to increased U.S. imports ahead of tariff hikes and a boom in AI-related goods.
Trump's tariffs, introduced since January, have unsettled global markets, causing uncertainty across economies. Amid these changes, the WTO predicts slower growth across regions in 2026. Nonetheless, trade in AI-linked goods, spurred a significant portion of 2025's trade growth, with Asia performing particularly well in exports.
(With inputs from agencies.)
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