Carlyle Group's Surprising Jobs Report: A New Economic Insight

Carlyle Group reported a surprisingly low estimate of 17,000 new jobs for September, contrasting sharply with expectations amid ongoing U.S. government shutdown. The report comes as the market eagerly awaits official economic data.

According to Carlyle's internal measures, the U.S. economy experienced a 2.7% GDP growth in September, alongside a decline in energy prices and an increase in service prices excluding shelter. Despite this economic output, a disconnect with employment figures is evident, partly influenced by a surge in household consumption and business spending fueled by the artificial intelligence boom.

Private data providers are stepping in to fill the information void left by delayed official statistics, with investors increasingly turning to these alternative sources for real-time economic insights. This shift has led to a notable increase in demand for private economic data.