UPDATE 3-Target doubles annual sales growth forecast as turnaround starts to pay off

Target raised ‌its ​annual sales growth forecast for the first time in two years, as the new CEO's investment-heavy turnaround effort starts to pay off even as the retailer faces a tougher macroeconomic environment.

Michael Fiddelke took over the top job from Brian Cornell in February and his plan to draw ‌back shoppers included spending an extra $2 billion this year to ensure well-stocked merchandise and cutting prices on 3,000 items in response to the fuel shock. Target struggled with three straight years of declining revenue as cost-conscious shoppers moved to cheaper options, while its merchandise failed to attract higher-income consumers looking for nice-to-have apparel and home decor.

The company expects net sales to grow around 4% this fiscal year, double its prior ‌target of 2% growth. "Despite our updated guidance, we're maintaining a cautious outlook, given the work we know we have in front of us, and ongoing uncertainty in the macroeconomic environment," ‌Fiddelke said on a call with the media.

Consumer-facing companies have been conservative about their full-year goals as the Iran war increases costs of fuel and impacts company profits. "Q1 results delivered on a high bar, but revised guidance implies a slowdown throughout the remainder of the year," said Steven Shemesh, analyst at RBC Capital Markets.

The $59-billion retailer's same-store sales grew 5.6% in its first quarter, exceeding expectations of a 2.5% rise and ending four quarters of decline, according to data compiled by LSEG. Its ⁠shares reversed ​course and were down about 4% in premarket trading ⁠on Wednesday. They have jumped about 30% so far this year.

"Expectations were high, but Target checked every box and we expect the stock's momentum to continue," said Chuck Grom, analyst at Gordon Haskett Equity Research. WHAT'S WORKING FOR TARGET

Perfect execution ⁠was crucial if Target wants to overcome Walmart's price advantage and gain back market share, analysts have said. "Target sits in a middle ground of retail - not the cheapest, not the go-to place for any one thing," said Morningstar ​analyst Brett Husslein.

For the three months through May 2, Target posted a rise in sales in all six of its core merchandising categories, compared with declines in five categories ⁠a year ago. Sales grew in the double-digits for toys where the company priced more products south of $10, executives said, while net sales jumped 6% in the food and beverages category, where it added 3,000 new food items.

Target also benefited from its ⁠newly ​introduced baby boutique segment offering more premium brands in about 200 stores and which comes ahead of its planned Target beauty studio launch in nearly 600 stores this fall season. It expects adjusted earnings per share at the upper end of its target range of $7.50 to $8.50.

SAME-DAY DELIVERIES DRIVE DIGITAL ORDERS Lower prices and fresher products on the shelves helped Target better compete with the aggressive pricing ⁠strategies from Walmart and Amazon, as well as off-price retailers like TJX and Ross Stores, while store remodels helped stock inventory better and fulfill online orders.

Digital sales surged 8.9%, Target said, well ⁠above the 1.9% growth in the prior three months. ⁠A 27% jump in same-day deliveries under Target's Circle 360 membership program also helped, as households sought convenience and the option to save fuel. Target's first-quarter gross margin rate was up slightly at 29%, helped by savings from its supply-chain efforts, growth in Roundel advertising revenue and lower markdowns.

Adjusted earnings ‌per share of $1.71 beat estimates ‌of $1.46. Retail bellwether Walmart will report quarterly results on Thursday.

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