El Nino May Trigger India's Weakest Monsoon in 11 Years, Impacting Economy
India anticipates an El Nino-influenced weak monsoon in 2026, potentially causing the weakest rainfall in 11 years. This forecast raises concerns over crop yields, food prices, and economic growth as the country grapples with inflation amid the ongoing Iran war. The monsoon typically accounts for 70% of annual rainfall, vital for agriculture.
India is bracing for its weakest monsoon in over a decade, with forecasts predicting El Nino will reduce rainfall in 2026. The anticipated dry spell poses a threat to the country's agriculture-dependent economy, affecting crop production, food prices, and inflation.
A key contributor to annual water replenishment, the monsoon delivers about 70% of rains to India, a nation where half the farmland relies on rain and half the population depends on agriculture. Experts warn that insufficient rainfall could drive inflation rates higher, putting pressure on economic growth.
Weather officials expect rainfall to be only 90% of the long-period average, marking the weakest output since 2015. With El Nino's influence, several states are already enduring heatwaves, intensifying the urgency for timely rain. Analysts caution that a subpar monsoon may lower rural incomes and influence grain exports.
(With inputs from agencies.)
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