Mozambique on the Brink: UN Warns of Deepening Humanitarian Crisis

Mozambique is at a critical turning point as it grapples with a rapidly deteriorating humanitarian situation marked by a confluence of violent conflict, climate-related disasters, and economic instability. Over the past few weeks alone, more than 25,000 individuals have been newly displaced, compounding the suffering of nearly 1.3 million people already uprooted by protracted violence, successive cyclones, and prolonged drought conditions. Humanitarian organizations, including the UN Refugee Agency (UNHCR), are raising urgent alarms as vital funding continues to dwindle, threatening the survival and protection of vulnerable populations.

Rising Displacement Amid Escalating Conflict

The northern province of Cabo Delgado, rich in natural gas and mineral resources, has been the epicenter of a brutal insurgency waged by non-state armed groups. These militants have repeatedly targeted civilians and infrastructure, disrupting efforts toward peacebuilding and sustainable development. The violence has forced families to flee their homes, often for the second or third time, seeking shelter in already overwhelmed host communities.

What is particularly alarming is the spread of violence into previously stable regions. In April, the districts of Ancuabe and Montepuez witnessed an influx of newly displaced individuals—14,929 and 5,370, respectively. Even Niassa Province, historically spared from large-scale displacement, saw more than 2,000 people flee since March 19. The expansion of conflict zones underscores the growing insecurity across the country.

Weather Extremes Deepen the Crisis

Mozambique is reeling from three major cyclones—Desmond, Ethel, and Jude—that struck in rapid succession between January and March 2025. The latest, Cyclone Jude, made landfall in Nampula Province in March, devastating homes and public infrastructure, including in areas where internally displaced persons (IDPs) had found temporary refuge. The destruction exacerbated already dire humanitarian needs, wiping out livelihoods and pushing food security to precarious levels.

The nation's experience with environmental shocks is not new, but the frequency and intensity of these disasters are increasing, likely fueled by climate change. Families recovering from previous storms are now starting over once again, in a cycle of loss that appears unbreakable under current circumstances.

Post-Election Unrest and Regional Implications

The civil unrest following Mozambique’s 2024 general elections added another layer of instability. Demonstrations and political violence pushed some Mozambicans to seek asylum in neighboring Malawi. Although most have returned voluntarily, the episode revealed just how fragile the internal sociopolitical climate remains.

As Mozambique faces displacement from both internal violence and political upheaval, the broader region is also feeling the strain. Humanitarian corridors and refugee shelters in neighboring countries are witnessing increased traffic, potentially spilling the crisis beyond national borders.

A System Under Strain: UNHCR and Humanitarian Shortfalls

Despite the vast scope of the crisis, humanitarian resources are severely stretched. UNHCR reports that it has received only 32 per cent of the $42.7 million required for 2025 operations in Mozambique. This funding gap threatens essential services such as health care, education, protection for survivors of gender-based violence, mental health support, and issuance of civil documentation.

The Maratane Refugee Settlement in Nampula Province, home to approximately 25,000 refugees and asylum-seekers—primarily from the Democratic Republic of the Congo—is especially vulnerable. Without immediate financial support, UNHCR may be forced to suspend vital programs in the camp, placing thousands at risk.

The situation is no better for Mozambique’s own internally displaced population, which stands at over 710,000, with an additional 600,000 having returned to their areas of origin. While these returns may appear to signal improvement, many returnees face hostile conditions and lack the support necessary to reintegrate and rebuild their lives.

Economic Collapse and Rising Poverty

The humanitarian crisis is intertwined with a deepening economic downturn. Food prices have surged by 10 to 20 per cent in recent months, pushing basic staples out of reach for many. Simultaneously, declining household incomes and high public debt are severely limiting the government’s ability to intervene. The national economy is caught in a “silent storm,” with communities pushed to the brink by inflation, unemployment, and systemic underinvestment.

Even with international recognition of the crisis, funding and aid have not kept pace with the scale of the emergency. Communities across Mozambique have demonstrated remarkable resilience and solidarity, opening their homes and resources to displaced people. Yet, it is neither equitable nor sustainable to expect one of the world’s poorest nations to manage such an immense burden alone.

A Call to Action: Preventing the Collapse

Mozambique’s humanitarian landscape is unraveling before the eyes of the international community. Without swift and substantial intervention, the country could soon face a full-blown emergency that eclipses past crises. The current challenges are not insurmountable—but they require immediate attention, funding, and global solidarity.

Organizations like UNHCR are urging donor countries, development institutions, and international partners to step up and prevent further deterioration. The cost of inaction will not only be borne by Mozambicans but could also destabilize an entire region already wrestling with its own conflicts and climate vulnerabilities.

As the situation grows more perilous by the day, the world faces a choice: act now to support and protect, or risk facing a far greater calamity in the months to come.