Building Climate-Resilient Cities: India’s Urgent Urban Development Roadmap

In a landmark collaboration between the World Bank Group, the Global Facility for Disaster Reduction and Recovery (GFDRR), the Ministry of Housing and Urban Affairs (MoHUA), and the National Institute of Urban Affairs (NIUA), the 2025 report Towards Resilient and Prosperous Cities in India lays out a detailed roadmap for steering India’s urban expansion toward climate resilience and low-carbon growth. With urban population expected to nearly double, from 480 million in 2020 to 951 million by 2050 and 1.1 billion by 2070, India faces both a massive challenge and an extraordinary opportunity. As over half of the infrastructure, buildings, and housing that will serve this population is yet to be constructed, the country stands at a critical juncture where proactive planning could prevent untold economic losses and human suffering in the decades ahead. The report, developed using state-of-the-art tools such as the UrbClim urban heat model and the CURB municipal climate planning tool, draws from a wide base of city-level assessments and global climate data to offer a way forward.

When Cities Drown: The Rising Cost of Urban Flooding

Flooding, especially pluvial flooding caused by stormwater runoff, emerges as one of the gravest threats to urban life in India. As climate change disrupts rainfall patterns and urbanization continues to pave over natural drainage, cities are becoming increasingly flood-prone. The report shows that pluvial flood-related losses have more than doubled in the past 20 years, now costing $4 billion annually. Without decisive intervention, these losses could escalate to as high as $30 billion a year by 2070. At the same time, sea-level rise and storm surges are expected to submerge portions of major coastal cities like Mumbai, Surat, and Kolkata, while riverine flooding in cities along the Ganga-Brahmaputra basin could generate damages up to $770 billion annually by 2050. Informal settlements, often built in low-lying or poorly drained areas, are particularly vulnerable, leaving low-income communities at heightened risk. The report’s high-resolution spatial analyses reveal that urban expansion is occurring even in high-risk zones, compounding future exposure to disaster.

Heat Islands and Hot Nights: The Urban Poor on the Frontlines

Alongside flooding, the second major climate hazard facing Indian cities is extreme heat. India’s urban areas are already experiencing significantly higher temperatures than surrounding rural zones due to the urban heat island (UHI) effect, in which concrete and asphalt trap solar radiation. Cities like Chennai, Surat, and Lucknow show nighttime temperatures 3–5°C higher than nearby areas. These hot nights, often topping 25°C, are deadly, particularly for the elderly and low-income households living in overcrowded, poorly ventilated homes. According to the report, heat-related deaths in cities are projected to more than double, from 144,000 annually in 2023 to 328,000 by 2050, if current emissions trends continue. The working poor are especially affected, with high heat stress projected to reduce safe working hours by up to 40 percent per year. Exposure to dangerous heat has already increased 71 percent in India’s 10 largest cities between 1990 and 2016, and will continue to surge without major adaptation strategies in place.

A Green Blueprint: Compact Cities and Resilient Housing

Despite the sobering projections, the report is optimistic about what is still possible. One of its strongest messages is that India has a unique chance to “build better” as it expands. More than 144 million new urban dwellings will be needed by 2070, over twice the current housing stock. If these are designed to be climate-smart, incorporating energy efficiency, natural ventilation, and rooftop solar, both emissions and energy costs can be dramatically reduced. Installing solar panels alone could reduce energy use in the housing sector by 64 percent. For the future housing stock, green upgrades would cost around $50 per person, a feasible amount given the long-term benefits. Compact city planning, with green spaces, better public transport, and walkability, would also mitigate emissions, improve air quality, and reduce flood risk. Modernizing solid waste management systems is another key recommendation, with the potential to cut sectoral emissions by 70 percent by mid-century while generating green jobs and cleaner cities.

Funding the Transformation: From Vision to Implementation

Yet, such sweeping urban reforms demand equally ambitious financing. The report estimates that developing resilient and low-carbon infrastructure in cities will require $2.4 trillion by 2050 and $10.9 trillion by 2070. This dwarfs current municipal spending, which stands at just 0.7 percent of GDP. Moreover, only 2–3 percent of municipal expenditures today can be linked to climate-related projects. To bridge this gap, the report calls for an overhaul of urban finance: climate-linked fiscal transfers from central and state governments, expansion of property tax revenue, use of green bonds, and increased private sector engagement. Cities must also strengthen their institutional capacity, especially in planning, project implementation, and tracking climate investments. Case studies like Ahmedabad and Indore show that such improvements are achievable and already yielding positive results.