Taiwan Analyst Denies Feasibility of Chinese Naval Blockade

A prominent Taiwanese defense analyst has dismissed the idea that China could successfully blockade Taiwan with merely a few submarines, claiming the military strategy is both logistically and strategically improbable, according to Taipei Times. The seminar at National Chengchi University featured Alexander Huang, a strategic studies expert from Tamkang University, who refuted the proposition put forth by China affairs expert Willy Lam.

In a symposium held in Washington, Lam, a senior fellow at The Jamestown Foundation, suggested that deploying four or five submarines could enforce a naval blockade around Taiwan. Huang questioned the practicality of sustaining such a blockade, highlighting the operational constraints even nuclear-powered submarines face. "While a nuclear submarine can remain submerged for long durations, necessities like food and crew rotation remain crucial," Huang stated.

Furthermore, Huang cautioned that attempting a blockade could endanger Chinese submarines significantly. "Sustaining the blockade is one challenge; ensuring the submarines can safely return is another, especially with other nations' naval forces likely to obstruct their return routes." He highlighted Taiwan's ability to mount a counteroffensive if required and warned of potential international ramifications. "Should the U.S. impose restrictions on Chinese vessels at the Strait of Malacca or target China's Yangshan Port, Beijing could face severe economic impacts," Huang explained.

Lam's assertion encountered swift rebuttals from Taiwanese officials, including Taiwan's Representative to the U.S., Alexander Yui, who emphasized Taiwanese resilience during the same event. Additionally, Liang Wen-chieh from the Mainland Affairs Council dismissed Lam's theory, suggesting it undermines Taiwan's longstanding defense efforts. As Taipei Times reports, these exchanges underscore Taiwan's position that China's military coercion, especially through naval blockades, is more theoretical than executable.

(With inputs from agencies.)