AI Monsoon Forecasts Empower 3.8 Crore Farmers With Early Weather Insights

For crores of Indian farmers, the monsoon is the lifeline of Kharif agriculture, the season that sustains their primary income and livelihoods. But erratic rainfall and unpredictable weather patterns often make farming a high-risk venture. Now, a new frontier in artificial intelligence (AI)-driven weather forecasting is changing the game—delivering tailored, advance rainfall forecasts directly to farmers’ phones, enabling them to make smarter, more confident agricultural decisions.

A First-of-Its-Kind Initiative

The Ministry of Agriculture and Farmers’ Welfare (MoAFW) has pioneered the use of AI to provide customized monsoon forecasts via SMS (m-Kisan) to nearly 3.8 crore farmers across 13 states during the current Kharif season. For the first time, farmers received location-specific forecasts up to four weeks in advance, far earlier than conventional forecasts.

This innovative public service makes India a global leader in applying AI to directly benefit farmers, ensuring that weather predictions are not just technical data, but actionable insights for agriculture.

Correctly Predicting a Monsoon Pause

This year’s monsoon began early but stalled midway, pausing rainfall for nearly 20 days before resuming. The AI-based forecasts correctly predicted this unusual pause, enabling the Ministry to issue weekly updates until rains restarted.

By aligning forecasts with farmers’ sowing and crop management timelines, the program helped them avoid losses, stagger inputs, and manage risk. As Joint Secretary Shri Sanjay Kumar Agarwal noted, “As climate change increases weather variability, forecasts are a useful tool to help farmers adapt.”

High-Level Review With Global Experts

On September 8, 2025, at a program review meeting in Krishi Bhavan, senior MoAFW officials met with Nobel Laureate and University of Chicago Professor Michael Kremer to evaluate progress and discuss scaling the initiative.

Additional Secretary Dr. Pramod Kumar Meherda explained, “This program harnesses AI-based forecasting to predict continuous rains, empowering farmers to plan activities with greater confidence and manage risks. We aim to make it even more precise in future years.”

Professor Kremer lauded the initiative as a global model of people-first AI applications, saying, “This is a huge achievement by the Ministry of Agriculture, benefiting millions of farmers and putting India at the cutting edge of addressing farmers’ needs.”

The AI Models Behind the Forecasts

The forecasts relied on two cutting-edge, open-access AI models:

• Google’s Neural General Circulation Model (NeuralGCM)

• ECMWF’s Artificial Intelligence Forecasting Systems (AIFS)

Rigorous evaluations have shown that these AI systems outperform traditional forecasts in predicting monsoon onset and local rainfall events weeks in advance. Their adaptability makes them especially suitable for agricultural contexts, where precision and timing are crucial.

Farmer-Centric Approach

To ensure that the forecasts were easy to understand and practical, MoAFW collaborated with Development Innovation Lab – India and Precision Development. Messages were field-tested with farmers to confirm clarity and usefulness.

Professor Ramesh Chand, Member of NITI Aayog, praised this farmer-first design: “This initiative is tremendously valuable because it centers on farmers’ needs by delivering tailored weather forecasts in simple language that helps them make informed decisions.”

Transformative Potential

The integration of AI into weather services represents more than a technological advance—it is a paradigm shift in agricultural risk management. Benefits include:

• Improved crop planning (choice of crop, sowing dates, and input use).

• Reduced losses from mid-season dry spells or excessive rains.

• Enhanced resilience against climate variability.

• Empowerment of small and marginal farmers with access to high-quality information.

By focusing on inclusivity, accessibility, and reliability, the initiative directly addresses farmers’ challenges and paves the way for climate-smart agriculture in India.

Towards Global Leadership

The AI-based monsoon forecasting program positions India at the forefront of agricultural innovation worldwide. With continued refinement, expansion to more states, and integration with crop insurance and input supply chains, the program could become a global benchmark for how governments can harness AI to serve farmers.

As Nobel Laureate Michael Kremer concluded, “The Ministry’s program is a model for how to put people first in the age of AI.”