WTO's Lowered Trade Forecast Reflects Global Uncertainty
The World Trade Organization (WTO) has revised its 2026 global merchandise trade growth forecast from 1.8% to 0.5%, citing delayed impacts of tariffs under U.S. President Donald Trump. WTO Director-General Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala highlighted the resilience of the global trading system, despite continuing uncertainties and tariff effects.
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The World Trade Organization (WTO) has significantly reduced its 2026 forecast for global merchandise trade growth to 0.5%, down from an earlier projection of 1.8% in August. This change underscores the anticipated delayed effects of tariffs implemented by U.S. President Donald Trump, reflecting a more challenging trade environment.
Expressing concerns about next year's trade scenario, WTO Director-General Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala emphasized the resilience of the world trading system, which continues to rely on the stability provided by a rules-based multilateral framework amidst lingering trade disputes.
The WTO, however, adjusted its 2025 trade growth outlook upwards to 2.4% due to preemptive import behaviors in the U.S. and increased trade of AI-related goods. Tariffs levied by Trump have unsettled financial markets, prompting global trade partners and the EU to negotiate better agreements, with trade growth expected to decelerate to 0.5% by 2026.
(With inputs from agencies.)
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