SA Welcomes Falling Food Inflation but Rising Fuel Costs Raise Alarm for Farmers

South Africa has recorded a significant decline in food inflation, offering some relief to consumers facing economic pressure, but growing fuel costs are emerging as a serious threat to the country’s agricultural sector and long-term food security.

Agriculture Minister John Steenhuisen welcomed the latest inflation figures released by Statistics South Africa, which showed that annual food and non-alcoholic beverage inflation eased to 2.9 percent in April 2026, down from 3.6 percent recorded in March.

The latest figures mark the third consecutive month of declining food inflation and represent the lowest food inflation rate seen in the past 14 months.

Economists say the easing food prices could provide short-term relief to households struggling with high living costs, particularly lower-income consumers who spend a significant portion of their income on food and transport.

However, the positive inflation trend has coincided with an unprecedented increase in fuel prices, raising concerns across the farming and logistics sectors.

According to the Consumer Price Index data, South Africa’s national fuel index surged by 18.2 percent in April compared with March — the sharpest monthly increase recorded since the current inflation series began in 2008.

Petrol prices rose sharply during the month, with inland 93-octane petrol increasing from R20.19 to R23.25 per litre.

Even more concerning for the agricultural sector was the dramatic increase in diesel prices, which climbed by 35.4 percent, rising from R21.28 to R28.80 per litre.

Steenhuisen warned that diesel remains one of the most essential operational inputs for South African farmers, directly affecting production, irrigation, harvesting, transportation and supply chain logistics.

According to the Minister, fuel expenses generally account for between 11 percent and 18 percent of total production and logistics costs within the agricultural sector.

He noted that most farmers operate as price takers in competitive markets and therefore struggle to pass rising operational costs onto consumers, placing severe pressure on profit margins across grain, livestock and horticultural industries.

The Minister cautioned that continued volatility in international oil markets could worsen the situation further in the coming months, especially as geopolitical tensions in the Middle East continue to affect global energy prices.

He warned that additional fuel price increases later in the year could significantly increase production and transportation costs, potentially reversing recent improvements in domestic food inflation.

Agricultural analysts have also raised concerns that prolonged fuel price pressures could eventually lead to higher retail food prices if producers are unable to absorb the rising operational costs indefinitely.

Despite the challenges linked to fuel costs, several food categories recorded slower inflation or continued price declines during April.

Meat inflation eased from 11.6 percent in March to 9.4 percent in April, partly driven by increased cattle slaughter activity linked to national Foot-and-Mouth Disease control measures.

The price growth of popular meat products also slowed considerably. Inflation for beef mince dropped from 22.2 percent to 15.3 percent, while stewing beef prices showed an even sharper decline from 22.6 percent to 8.7 percent.

The grains and cereals category continued to record deflation for a third consecutive month, with staple products such as maize meal, white rice, basmati rice, porridge and bread flour becoming cheaper compared with the same period last year.

Meanwhile, the milk, dairy and eggs category recorded a slight annual increase of 0.1 percent in April after previously recording negative inflation in March.

However, some products within the category continued to experience deflation, with powdered milk and eggs remaining cheaper than a year earlier.

The Department of Agriculture said it will continue engaging with agricultural organisations, logistics stakeholders and government institutions to identify possible interventions aimed at reducing pressure on farmers and strengthening food system resilience.

Steenhuisen stressed that shielding producers from global energy shocks is essential for maintaining long-term agricultural sustainability and national food security.

Economists note that South Africa’s agricultural sector remains highly sensitive to fuel and energy costs due to the country’s dependence on road freight logistics, large transport distances and diesel-powered farming operations.

The latest inflation trends highlight the delicate balance between global economic pressures, domestic food production and consumer affordability as South Africa navigates ongoing economic uncertainty.