The Future of African Flight: Scaling Up Sustainable Aviation Fuels for Net-Zero Goals

The World Bank’s research developed with support from Hasselt University and enriched by inputs from institutions such as the International Finance Corporation (IFC) and the African Development Bank (AfDB), outlines an ambitious yet grounded vision for how Africa can transform its aviation sector through the local production of sustainable aviation fuel (SAF). As the International Air Transport Association (IATA) forecasts a doubling of African air passenger traffic by 2043, the report argues that SAF is not only a climate necessity but also a strategic industrial opportunity. While global SAF production needs to grow from 0.5 million tons in 2024 to 500 million by 2050, Africa remains largely absent from this trajectory. With the right mix of investment, policy, and infrastructure, the continent could shift from being a raw feedstock exporter to a key player in global SAF value chains.

Kenya’s Jet Fuel Hub: A Launchpad for HEFA-based SAF

Kenya emerges in the report as a prime candidate to pioneer SAF production in the region. A 4,000-barrel-per-day (BPD) facility using hydrotreated esters and fatty acids (HEFA) technology could be established with a $235 million investment, drawing on feedstocks such as castor oil and used cooking oil (UCO). The plant could meet up to 15 percent of current jet fuel demand and 10 percent of projected demand by 2030. Kenya’s comparative advantage lies in its mature petroleum distribution infrastructure, a strong technical base in jet fuel certification, and political commitment to decarbonization. However, challenges persist. SAF production costs remain up to 80 percent higher than conventional jet fuel, driven by high capital costs, limited feedstock availability, and Kenya’s elevated risk profile in global capital markets. Policy tools such as accelerated depreciation, tax breaks, and long-term offtake agreements with airlines are highlighted as essential to closing the viability gap. The recent involvement of the International Finance Corporation and Italian firm Eni in Kenya’s oilseed development points to the potential for rapid scale-up, particularly in castor cultivation.

Ethiopia’s Twin Strategy: Sugarcane and Solid Waste to SAF

Ethiopia’s approach to SAF is shaped by its dominant national carrier, Ethiopian Airlines, which concentrates jet fuel demand and provides a potential anchor client for local production. The report evaluates two major technological pathways for Ethiopia: alcohol-to-jet (ATJ) fuel from sugarcane and molasses, and Fischer-Tropsch (FT) conversion of municipal solid waste (MSW). An ATJ plant would require $376 million to produce 1,445 BPD of SAF, while a $547 million FT facility could generate 853 BPD. These facilities could meet 6 percent and 4 percent of Ethiopia’s jet fuel demand, respectively, while also creating co-products like diesel and naphtha. Yet scaling up these technologies comes with uncertainty, particularly around the supply chain logistics for MSW and the process complexity of FT systems. Still, Ethiopia’s favorable agro-climatic conditions, existing sugarcane infrastructure, and need to reduce reliance on imported jet fuel position it well to become a regional SAF innovator if the right financing and technical support are mobilized.

Nigeria’s Refinery Advantage: SAF through Co-Processing

Unlike the other countries, Nigeria’s SAF opportunity lies not in building new infrastructure but in repurposing existing refinery capacity through lipid co-processing. The Dangote refinery, one of the largest in Africa, could potentially produce between 3,321 and 5,950 BPD of SAF using waste oils, tallow, and other lipids. Co-processing is less capital-intensive and can be implemented rapidly, offering Nigeria a short- to medium-term route into SAF markets. However, challenges around feedstock scalability and aviation sector fragmentation persist. Nonetheless, Nigeria’s geographic positioning near the Gulf of Guinea and proximity of major airports to refining hubs offer critical logistical advantages. This model aligns with IATA projections that co-processing could reduce global SAF capital needs by as much as $347 billion by 2050.

South Africa’s Green Hydrogen Play: Investing in Power-to-Liquid SAF

South Africa presents the continent’s most technically advanced SAF pathway through power-to-liquid (PtL) fuels derived from green hydrogen and industrial waste carbon. A 1,000-BPD PtL plant, costing around $156 million (excluding green hydrogen costs), could produce 39 million liters of SAF annually, covering approximately 3 percent of the nation’s jet fuel demand. South Africa’s legacy in Fischer-Tropsch technology and its green hydrogen commercialization strategy provide a robust foundation. However, its coal-heavy energy grid could undermine lifecycle emissions benefits unless paired with a decisive shift to renewables. High hydrogen and CO₂ capture costs remain a major barrier. Nevertheless, South Africa’s strategic ambition to develop SAF export corridors and its existing industrial backbone suggest it could emerge as a continental hub for high-value SAF products.

Bridging the Cost Gap: Risk and Green Premiums Still Loom Large

The report rigorously examines the economics behind SAF production, identifying two main cost drivers: risk premiums and green premiums. African countries face higher loan interest rates and discount rates, which inflate capital costs. If Kenya, Ethiopia, and South Africa had risk profiles similar to the U.S. or EU, SAF production costs would fall by 17 to 28 percent. Yet even with de-risking, a substantial green premium, 47 percent in Kenya, 64 percent in Ethiopia, and 69 percent in South Africa, remains. These premiums reflect the additional costs of clean technologies, limited economies of scale, and immature value chains. The report suggests that blended finance, carbon credits, book-and-claim mechanisms, and long-term offtake contracts could help absorb these cost differentials. In parallel, lifecycle emissions analysis shows that UCO-based HEFA can reduce emissions by up to 88 percent, with sugarcane ATJ and MSW-FT offering significant gains and, in some cases, even carbon-negative potential.

Ultimately, the World Bank’s study calls for a multi-decade commitment from governments, development finance institutions, and private sector actors to scale SAF in Africa. This includes immediate feedstock investments, medium-term policy roadmaps, and long-term infrastructure and certification systems. SAF is not merely a clean fuel, it’s a lever for industrial transformation, energy security, and climate leadership. If Africa can align its resources, policies, and partnerships, the continent could not only fuel its own flights but also help chart the global course toward net-zero aviation.