The Parenthood Recession: Why Adults in Rich Nations Are Choosing Childlessness

In a sweeping investigation into the causes of falling birth rates in wealthy nations, Melissa Schettini Kearney of the University of Notre Dame and Phillip B. Levine of Wellesley College, writing under the auspices of the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER), challenge the conventional wisdom surrounding fertility decline. Drawing on rich demographic datasets from the Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research and the Vienna Institute of Demography, they argue that low fertility is not merely a symptom of rising costs or weak policy support. Instead, it reflects a more profound and subtle evolution, a generational reshaping of life’s priorities. The concept they introduce, “shifting priorities,” captures how parenthood, once a nearly universal adult aspiration, is increasingly competing, and often losing, against careers, leisure, personal fulfillment, and new social norms.

From Delay to Disengagement: The Power of Cohort Trends

While commonly used measures like the Total Fertility Rate (TFR) or General Fertility Rate (GFR) offer useful snapshots, they obscure the bigger picture. The authors show that tracking fertility through cohort-based data, by following specific generations of women, offers more meaningful insight. These data reveal that recent generations across countries such as the United States, Canada, Norway, and Japan are not only postponing childbirth but are also having fewer children overall. Younger cohorts, particularly those born after 1987, are significantly lagging behind earlier generations in terms of average births by age 30, and many are unlikely to ever reach replacement levels. In countries like Japan, a notable 27% of women from earlier cohorts remained childless, compared to just 12% in Portugal, despite similar total births. The difference lies in birth order: Portuguese women are more likely to have one child, while Japanese women who do have children tend to have more than one. However, the broader pattern remains clear: childlessness is on the rise, and the overall number of children ever born is steadily declining.

Fewer Marriages, Fewer Babies

A clear link persists between marriage and childbearing, even in liberal Western societies. Across countries, married women consistently have more children than their unmarried counterparts. Yet marriage itself is becoming less common and more delayed. This trend is especially stark in Japan, where cultural norms strongly discourage births outside of marriage. As a result, Japan has witnessed a tripling of the number of unmarried women by age 50 between 2000 and 2020. This weakening of the marriage institution directly affects national fertility, especially in societies where social acceptance of non-marital childbearing remains low. Meanwhile, in countries like the U.S. or France, where non-marital births are more common, the impact is less pronounced, though still present. Whether declining marriage causes declining fertility or vice versa is not entirely clear, but the authors highlight the need for more research into the causal links and the social norms that reinforce them.

Economic Tools with Modest Impact

While governments have experimented with child benefits, tax credits, and other incentives to boost birth rates, the results are often underwhelming. Studies reviewed by Kearney and Levine suggest that such financial interventions, whether cash transfers in Poland and Spain or child allowances in Israel, produce only small, often short-lived increases in fertility. More significant effects have been found in historical or large-scale programs. For instance, U.S. government mortgage subsidies in the mid-20th century and randomized housing credit lotteries in Brazil notably increased completed fertility by improving young couples’ access to homeownership. These findings suggest that while income matters, only substantial interventions, especially those enabling earlier family formation, have meaningful long-term effects. In contrast, child tax credits or parental leave policies, which generally target families already raising children, tend to influence the timing of second or third births rather than reducing childlessness.

Culture, Norms, and the Redefinition of Parenthood

Ultimately, the most compelling explanation offered by the authors centers on culture, not cost. Survey data from the World Values Survey and Pew Research Center show that today’s young adults increasingly prioritize careers, leisure, and friendships over marriage and children. Parenthood remains a positive ideal, but the societal expectation to have multiple children has weakened. In many societies, especially the U.S., parenting has also become more intense and costly in emotional and time terms. As parental investment per child rises, many adults are deterred from starting families altogether. The influence of social media and changing gender roles further complicates these decisions. Studies show that women are often more reluctant than men to have additional children when domestic responsibilities are unequally shared. As expectations for egalitarian partnerships grow but reality lags behind, the result may be both fewer marriages and fewer births.