Adaptive Strategies for Social Protection in Conflict-Affected and Fragile Regions

The 2025 flagship report, “A Guide to Implementing Social Safety Nets in Fragile, Conflict, and Violent Contexts”, represents a major milestone in global social protection efforts. Produced by the World Bank and the Sahel Adaptive Social Protection Program (SASPP), with backing from international donors including Germany’s BMZ, the Agence Française de Développement (AFD), Denmark’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs, and the UK’s FCDO, the report compiles years of experience into a single operational guide. Designed by Silvia Fuselli, Mona Niebuhr, Mira Saidi, and Sara Agostini, this comprehensive volume targets World Bank task teams and government officials working in fragile and conflict-affected settings. Drawing from more than thirty country interventions across Africa, the Middle East, and Asia, the Guidebook distills frontline experience into practical strategies for delivering safety nets under extreme insecurity and systemic breakdowns.

Where Conventional Aid Models Fall Short

The central message of the Guidebook is clear: traditional approaches to safety net delivery simply don’t work in environments plagued by violence, displacement, and political turmoil. In FCV contexts, insecurity is not a background concern; it actively shapes every stage of programming, from outreach and targeting to payment delivery and monitoring. Physical access is often limited by conflict zones, roadblocks, or the presence of armed groups. Community trust is fragile, institutions are often under-resourced or politicized, and mass displacement disrupts beneficiary identification and documentation. In such settings, even the most basic logistical tasks, like verifying identities or distributing cash, become formidable challenges. The Guidebook catalogues the most frequent and severe risks, from elite capture and capacity breakdowns to gender-based exclusion, and offers tools to plan for these obstacles in advance.

Programming with Flexibility and Sensitivity

The report’s structure follows the project life cycle: programming, delivery, and implementation. During the programming phase, it stresses the need for simplicity in project design. Complex program models often fail in low-capacity states, as seen in Congo’s Lisungi project, where benefit variability confused recipients and fueled grievances. Tools like the Risk and Resilience Assessment (RRA), the Security Risk Assessment (SRA), and the Peace and Inclusion Lens (PIL) are recommended to understand local grievances, power dynamics, and security threats. For instance, in Myanmar, the PIL helped design a maternal and child cash transfer program that reached conflict-affected ethnic minorities and prioritized social inclusion. In Yemen and Burkina Faso, the use of scenario-based planning allowed teams to adjust operations based on levels of insecurity, ensuring program continuity even in escalating crises.

The Guidebook also promotes flexibility in contracting, budget structuring, and targeting. Unallocated funds and contingent emergency response components (CERCs) give projects the agility to respond to sudden shocks. In South Sudan, for example, projects were designed to quickly shift from labor-intensive public works to unconditional cash transfers in response to violence or natural disasters. Flexibility is also essential in geographic targeting; program areas may need to change depending on evolving access and risk.

Innovative Delivery in Volatile Environments

In the delivery phase, the Guidebook outlines how to adapt core functions, registration, targeting, payments, and outreach when insecurity limits field presence and infrastructure. It encourages the use of mobile registration tools, shortened questionnaires, and digital platforms such as Kobo Toolbox and CORE MIS. Alternative targeting mechanisms, like community-based targeting, digital databases, and even lottery systems, are shown to be useful where traditional surveys are impractical or politically sensitive. For example, in the Democratic Republic of Congo, lottery-based beneficiary selection helped avoid perceptions of bias, while in Somalia, proxy-means testing was used to target aid to those most in need without relying on fragile census data.

When it comes to payments, the Guidebook presents a range of options including mobile money, manual disbursements, and mobile pay points, each with its own security and logistical trade-offs. In Mali and Yemen, flexible payment systems allowed for rapid adaptation when security conditions changed. Accompanying measures, such as health training, education incentives, or entrepreneurship programs, are recommended to be modular and context-sensitive. In high-risk zones, digital or community-based delivery methods are favored to reduce the need for in-person interaction.

Rebuilding Trust Through Local Systems and Women’s Leadership

Perhaps one of the most powerful aspects of the Guidebook is its insistence on aligning with and strengthening national systems, even in fragile states. While it acknowledges the temporary need for third-party implementers such as UN agencies, the ultimate goal remains to build local capacity and institutional legitimacy. Institutional arrangements must be carefully structured to promote long-term ownership while addressing short-term delivery gaps. The Guidebook also highlights the importance of real-time monitoring tools like the Geo-Enabling Initiative for Monitoring and Supervision (GEMS) and Iterative Beneficiary Monitoring (IBM), which allow teams to track progress even in areas with limited access.

Gender equity is another recurring theme. The Guidebook frames women not just as vulnerable recipients but as strategic actors in peacebuilding and community development. Programs in Yemen, Liberia, and Mali demonstrated how targeting women for cash transfers increased household welfare, community cohesion, and civic engagement. Women-led councils and “peace huts” have proven instrumental in mediating conflicts and restoring social trust. The report urges practitioners to design interventions that break barriers to women’s participation and empower them as agents of change.

The Guidebook is not just a technical manual; it’s a field-tested, context-aware survival guide for delivering life-saving support amid war, displacement, and chaos. With FCV countries projected to host nearly two-thirds of the world’s extreme poor by 2030, its arrival could not be more urgent. It offers a nuanced, practical, and adaptable roadmap to build resilience in the world’s most fragile places, transforming how social protection systems are imagined and executed in the face of uncertainty.