Japan's Political Landscape: LDP Faces Historic Low Ahead of Election

Japan's ruling Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) has recorded its lowest score in an opinion poll since regaining power in 2012, according to a survey conducted by public broadcaster NHK this week. This downturn highlights potential struggles for the governing bloc in Sunday's upper house election.

The poll, conducted from July 11 to 13, shows LDP support dropping by 4.1 percentage points to 24% over a week. The administration of Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba, however, retains 31% support. The declining numbers suggest the coalition of the LDP and its junior partner, Komeito, may lose their majority in the upper house, following the loss of their lower house majority last October.

A poor performance in the election could jeopardize Ishiba's political standing, compounded by an imminent August 1 deadline to secure a trade agreement with the United States. The emergence of smaller opposition parties advocating tax cuts and loose monetary policies adds complexity to the Bank of Japan's interest rate strategy, showcasing an increasingly fragmented political landscape.

Other parties fared variedly in the poll: the Constitutional Democratic Party holds 7.8% support, while the unpredictable newcomer, Sanseito, climbed to 5.9%. The Democratic Party for the People stands at 4.9%, LDP ally Komeito at 3.5%, Japan Innovation Party 3.1%, and the Japanese Communist Party 3.0%, with 33.7% of respondents undecided on their support.

(With inputs from agencies.)