TN voters saw Vijay as credible alternative to Dravidian parties: Pradeep Gupta

Pollster Pradeep Gupta has said his agency began detecting Vijay's emergence as a serious political force in Tamil Nadu nearly a year before the Assembly election, with support for the actor-politician steadily rising as voters increasingly viewed him as a credible alternative to the state's entrenched Dravidian parties.

In an interview to PTI on Wednesday, Gupta said his agency, Axis My India, tracked Vijay's support climbing from around 25 per cent a year before the Assembly election in the southern state to 35 per cent by polling day.

''Our groundwork started one year prior to the election. His vote share was around 25 per cent around six months before the polls. It rose to 28 per cent three months ago, then to about 30 per cent about a month ago. And by the polling day, it had risen to 35 per cent. This was the trajectory,'' Gupta said.

Asked whether he feared that Axis My India might have made a ''blunder'' in projecting Vijay's TVK in contention for power, with most other agencies predicting the DMK-led alliance's victory, Gupta said there is always an element of uncertainty in election forecasting.

''We gave a range of 98 to 120 seats because there was some doubt over whether the majority mark of 118 would be crossed. Even a 2-per cent variation in the vote share can dramatically alter seat outcomes,'' he said.

After days of political uncertainty and intense back-and-forth with Governor Rajendra Vishwanath Arlekar over proving his majority, Vijay finally took oath as the chief minister of Tamil Nadu on May 10, backed by parties ranging from the Congress and the Communist Party of India (Marxist) to the CPI, VCK and IUML, which helped his coalition cross the halfway mark.

Gupta noted that Axis My India had projected a 35-per cent vote share, with a margin of error of plus or minus 2 percentage points, and the TVK eventually secured exactly 35 per cent.

''The midpoint of our projected range was 109 seats, and it finally won 108. That is how we mitigated the risk in our forecast,'' he said.

Gupta explained that once alliances were formed and candidates entered the field, voters started identifying Vijay as a frontrunner.

''It was becoming increasingly clear that he was in the forefront. The question was not whether he had emerged, but how many seats he would ultimately win and whether that would be enough to form the government,'' he said.

Explaining Vijay's rise, Gupta said the actor's decades-long popularity in Tamil cinema had given him unmatched ''brand equity''.

''For 30 years, he has been a known face and for nearly two decades, he has enjoyed major stardom. In Tamil Nadu, cinema following is at the highest level, from the days of M G Ramachandran and even prior to that,'' he said.

Gupta said Vijay's films over the last 10 years frequently portrayed anti-establishment characters, reinforcing his image as a leader capable of challenging the political status quo.

''People had begun seeing him in a leadership role linked to political issues. Once that trajectory formed, voters started asking, if not the incumbent government, then who is the alternative?'' he said.

Gupta argued that the weakening of the AIADMK after the death of former chief minister J Jayalalithaa also created political space for Vijay's rise.

''For nearly 50 years, Dravidian politics revolved around either the DMK or the AIADMK. But demographic changes have created a younger Tamil Nadu looking for a credible alternative.... People wanted change and wanted to try something new. They saw Vijay as someone credible enough to trust and capable of making a difference,'' he said.

(This story has not been edited by Devdiscourse staff and is auto-generated from a syndicated feed.)