Mapping Climate Vulnerability: Why Poverty and Exclusion Must Shape Adaptation Plans

The World Bank’s 2025 report, “Understanding Social Vulnerability for More Effective Climate Strategies: Lessons from CCDRs in Southern and Eastern Africa,” presents a powerful synthesis of climate risk and social inequality across eight countries, Botswana, Burundi, Comoros, the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC), Madagascar, Mozambique, Namibia, and South Africa. Developed in collaboration with institutions such as the Red Cross Red Crescent Climate Centre, the Oxford Poverty and Human Development Initiative, and the World Bank’s Social Sustainability and Inclusion (SSI) team, the report draws on data and insights from the Country Climate and Development Reports (CCDRs). It unpacks how poverty, gender, ethnicity, age, and exclusion from decision-making processes exacerbate vulnerability to climate hazards and hinder resilience-building in some of the world's most climate-threatened regions.

While climate impacts such as floods, droughts, and cyclones are widespread, their consequences vary dramatically depending on social conditions. In rural areas, the reliance on small-scale, rain-fed agriculture, combined with weak infrastructure and limited services, creates extreme fragility. Urban slums, though often more economically active, also remain vulnerable due to overcrowding, inadequate housing, and poor access to sanitation and clean water. The report’s multidimensional exclusion analysis (MDE) reveals stark overlaps between areas of high social exclusion and regions facing severe climate anomalies, particularly in Madagascar, Namibia, and the DRC.

The Gender Gap in Climate Resilience

Women and girls across the region are disproportionately impacted by climate change due to long-standing legal, social, and cultural inequalities. In countries like Mozambique and Madagascar, women make up the majority of agricultural laborers, yet they often lack ownership of land and control over productive assets. Their responsibility for water collection and household fuel makes them particularly sensitive to environmental degradation. Prolonged droughts force them to travel longer distances, increasing exposure to gender-based violence and reducing time for education or income-generating activities.

Girls are more likely to be pulled out of school during crises, sometimes married off early to alleviate household burdens. In Madagascar’s Grand Sud region, recently devastated by one of the worst droughts in decades, early marriage, child labor, and sexual exploitation have surged among food-insecure households. Multidimensional exclusion data from CCDRs show women consistently score higher on exclusion indices than men, especially in countries like South Africa and Namibia. Yet, despite their vulnerability, women are frequently excluded from climate decision-making, both at local and national levels.

Indigenous Peoples and the Weight of History

The report highlights how Indigenous and marginalized ethnic groups face severe climate risks rooted in historic injustice. In Namibia, the San people, who have lost most of their traditional lands, live in extreme poverty and depend heavily on state food aid. They also suffer from low literacy and minimal political representation, making them more vulnerable to displacement and exclusion from climate adaptation efforts. In the DRC, Pygmy communities have been uprooted from forests they traditionally stewarded, and now face both ecological threats and widespread marginalization.

Despite their exclusion, Indigenous communities often possess valuable traditional knowledge about natural resource management and weather patterns. In Botswana’s Okavango Delta, Indigenous groups have used local weather indicators to predict droughts and floods. However, as displacement and environmental changes erode these systems, there’s a risk of losing both their cultural heritage and their capacity to adapt. The report advocates for integrating this traditional knowledge into scientific frameworks and policy planning.

When Climate Change Meets Conflict

In regions already experiencing fragility and violence, climate change acts as a threat multiplier. The report zeroes in on Cabo Delgado in Mozambique, where insurgent violence has surged since 2017 alongside repeated cyclones and flooding. Natural disasters have devastated infrastructure, displaced communities, and created openings for extremist recruitment. More than 800,000 people were displaced by 2023, and humanitarian assistance remains critically under-resourced.

A similar situation plays out in the DRC, where years of conflict, poverty, and weak governance intersect with environmental shocks. More than 6.9 million people have been displaced, most due to conflict, but increasingly driven by droughts and floods. The convergence of climate stress and social unrest creates a feedback loop: disasters displace people, erode coping systems, and deepen social tensions, which in turn foster more conflict. Such crises demand integrated strategies that link peacebuilding, humanitarian relief, and climate resilience.

From Vulnerability to Empowerment

The report concludes with a clear message: climate resilience must be people-centered. It urges policymakers and development institutions to prioritize inclusion, equity, and social analysis in every aspect of climate strategy, from risk assessments to project design and financing. It showcases promising models such as the Dedicated Grant Mechanism (DGM) in Mozambique, which supports community-driven climate projects and empowers women and youth in forest management. Another flagship example is the Burundi Colline Climate Resilience Project, which combines sustainable watershed management, land certification, and grassroots climate planning to support local adaptation.

Finally, the report calls for a paradigm shift in climate finance. Rather than simply compensating those affected, future projects must ensure benefit-sharing and participatory governance. Socially inclusive policies aren’t just morally urgent but critical for ensuring that climate solutions are effective and sustainable. Vulnerable communities, it argues, must not only be protected but also empowered to shape their futures in a warming world. Only then can the goals of green, resilient, and inclusive development truly be realized across Southern and Eastern Africa.