IMD Predicts Above-Normal 2025 Monsoon Rainfall, Boosting Kharif Outlook

The India Meteorological Department (IMD), operating under the Ministry of Earth Sciences, has released its updated Long-Range Forecast for the upcoming 2025 Southwest Monsoon season (June–September), alongside the Monthly Rainfall and Temperature Outlook for June 2025. The forecast offers an encouraging outlook for the nation’s agriculture and water resource sectors, predicting above-normal rainfall at the national scale.

National Rainfall Outlook: A Wetter-Than-Usual Monsoon

According to the IMD’s latest projections, seasonal rainfall across India is expected to be 106% of the Long Period Average (LPA), with a model error margin of ±4%. This places the 2025 monsoon season in the above-normal category, offering a hopeful sign for India’s largely monsoon-dependent agriculture sector, particularly Kharif crop cultivation.

This positive forecast follows a series of variable monsoon seasons in recent years and could bring much-needed relief to farmers and rural communities coping with rainfall uncertainty and climate variability.

Regional Rainfall Forecast: Uneven Distribution Across Zones

The regional outlook suggests a mixed rainfall distribution across India’s diverse climatic zones:

• Central India and the South Peninsular region are forecast to receive above-normal rainfall, a promising development for major cropping states such as Madhya Pradesh, Maharashtra, Andhra Pradesh, Tamil Nadu, and Karnataka.

• Northwest India, encompassing states like Rajasthan, Punjab, Haryana, and western Uttar Pradesh, is expected to see normal rainfall (ranging from 92% to 108% of LPA).

• Northeast India, which typically receives the highest rainfall in the country, is likely to face below-normal precipitation, with less than 94% of LPA projected.

The Monsoon Core Zone (MCZ)—home to much of India’s rainfed farming—will likely see above-normal rainfall, boosting expectations for robust sowing and yields during the Kharif cropping season.

June 2025 Rainfall and Temperature Outlook

For June 2025, the IMD forecasts above-normal countrywide rainfall, with projected precipitation exceeding 108% of LPA. This bodes well for early monsoon onset and initial sowing activities.

However, the distribution will not be uniform:

• Most regions are likely to receive normal to above-normal rainfall.

• Exceptions include southern portions of the Peninsula (parts of Tamil Nadu and Kerala), and parts of Northwest and Northeast India, where below-normal rainfall is expected.

On the temperature front, contrasting patterns are anticipated:

• Maximum temperatures are likely to remain normal to below-normal across much of the country.

• However, above-normal maximum temperatures are forecast for many parts of Northwest and Northeast India.

• Minimum temperatures are expected to be above-normal over most areas, with normal to below-normal nighttime temperatures likely only in parts of Central India and southern Peninsula.

These temperature dynamics, combined with increased rainfall, may provide temporary relief from heatwaves while enhancing soil moisture and irrigation conditions during the early monsoon weeks.

Implications for Agriculture, Water Resources, and Disaster Management

The IMD’s long-range forecast is a critical input for:

• Agricultural planning, especially sowing schedules and crop selection

• Reservoir and water resource management, essential for drinking water and irrigation

• Disaster preparedness, particularly for flood-prone regions in Central and Eastern India

The IMD emphasized that it will continue to issue regular updates and refinements to these forecasts to support policy and operational planning in agriculture, infrastructure, and emergency response.

Farmers, state governments, and disaster management authorities are advised to stay informed via IMD’s bulletins and advisories in the coming weeks as the monsoon begins to progress across the subcontinent.

A Positive Signal Amid Climate Uncertainty

While climate change has added unpredictability to monsoon patterns, this year’s above-average forecast is a positive development for a nation where more than 50% of farmland is rain-fed. If the rainfall materializes as predicted, it could stimulate rural income, ease inflationary pressures on food prices, and support economic stability through increased agricultural output.

However, the below-normal forecast for Northeast India—a biodiversity and agriculture hotspot—warrants targeted contingency planning to mitigate the risk of crop loss, water shortages, and ecological stress.

The IMD’s continued focus on improving long-range forecast accuracy and integrating climate models underscores India’s efforts to adapt and respond proactively to a changing climate.