Climate change, upstream dams push Iraq into water emergency

A new study warns that Iraq is facing a historic and deepening water crisis, driven by climate change, upstream dam construction, and decades of mismanagement. Published in the journal Water, the study titled “Application of Decision Support Systems to Water Management: The Case of Iraq”, the research offers a comprehensive strategy centered around modern Decision Support Systems (DSSs) and Integrated Comprehensive Water Management Strategies (ICWMSs).

The framework proposed aims to stabilize Iraq’s diminishing water supply, modernize infrastructure, and position the country for future transboundary negotiations.

Why has Iraq's water situation reached crisis levels?

According to the study, Iraq’s water crisis is rooted in a combination of long-term mismanagement, increasing demand, and environmental pressures. Between 1933 and 2022, Iraq experienced a 31% reduction in the flow of the Tigris River and a 49.5% decline in the Euphrates. Over the same period, the country has struggled to secure equitable water-sharing agreements with riparian neighbors, Turkey, Iran, and Syria, who have built numerous upstream dams and water diversion projects.

The situation is further aggravated by climate variability, outdated irrigation systems, and poor infrastructure maintenance. Evaporation alone accounts for losses of approximately 10 billion cubic meters annually. The agricultural sector, which consumes up to 80% of Iraq’s water resources depending on the year, continues to rely on inefficient practices. Urban population growth, deteriorating environmental conditions, and rising industrial demands intensify the stress on Iraq’s finite water supply.

Complicating matters, the government’s previously developed Strategy for Water and Land Resources in Iraq (SWLRI) for 2015–2035 failed to be fully implemented due to funding constraints, political interference, corruption, and lack of institutional integration. Although efforts were renewed in 2024 with the relaunch of a revised strategy, Iraq lacks the technical and institutional tools to manage water equitably and sustainably under conditions of severe scarcity.

What solutions does the proposed framework offer?

The study proposes a sweeping transformation of Iraq’s water governance system through the implementation of Decision Support Systems (DSSs) integrated within an overarching ICWMS. These DSSs are envisioned as computer-based tools that use real-time data, artificial intelligence, and modeling to assist in water-related decision-making at both operational and strategic levels.

A phased plan is outlined to implement this transformation by 2050. The strategy includes:

• Short-Term Actions (2025–2030): Deploying DSS and SCADA technologies at the National Center for Water Resource Management for automated monitoring and operations. Simultaneously, restoration of river courses and irrigation infrastructure will be prioritized.

• Medium-Term Measures (2030–2035): Full automation of major irrigation networks, enabling scenario-based operations that take into account inflow variations, climate change projections, and population growth.

• Long-Term Goals (2035–2050): Achieving 85% water-use efficiency across sectors and establishing DSS-linked real-time hydrological forecasting, risk management, and integrated governance mechanisms.

Technically, the framework incorporates hydrological simulation models like HEC-ResSim and hydrodynamic flood routing tools. These enable precise forecasting and reservoir operation adjustments for droughts, floods, or normal water years. The DSS also employs the DPSIR (Driving Forces, Pressures, State, Impact, Response) model to analyze the socio-ecological dynamics influencing water systems.

Additionally, the study advocates for a unified platform combining satellite data, GIS, remote sensing, and AI to assess current resources, forecast changes, and optimize operations across all river basins. Stakeholders’ needs, including municipal, industrial, environmental, and agricultural demands, are carefully integrated into water allocation modeling.

How can Iraq secure regional cooperation and sustainability?

Given the transboundary nature of Iraq’s primary water sources, the Tigris and Euphrates, the study emphasizes that national reforms must be matched by regional diplomacy. Drawing on lessons from the Mekong, Nile, and Danube basins, the authors argue for Iraq to institutionalize bilateral and multilateral water-sharing agreements under the principles of the UN Watercourses Convention.

To support these goals, the proposed Multi-Hazard Risk Matrix embedded in the DSS framework enables scenario planning around upstream water cuts, prolonged droughts, flash floods, and ecological degradation. These simulations aim to inform negotiations with riparian states and reduce the risks of conflict over water.

Complementary actions recommended by the study include:

• Establishing an Iraqi Federal Water and Environment Council to harmonize inter-ministerial planning.
• Updating legal frameworks to regulate water use, penalize violations, and resolve disputes.
• Mobilizing public and private investments to rehabilitate infrastructure and adopt water-saving technologies.
• Promoting desalination, wastewater reuse, and rainwater harvesting to diversify supply.
• Launching education campaigns to foster community awareness and conservation practices.

The authors call for international support, including technical assistance and soft loans, to facilitate Iraq’s transition toward a sustainable, technology-enabled water governance system. If fully implemented, the study concludes, Iraq can reverse its trajectory of water insecurity, mitigate ecological collapse, and restore stability in a region critically shaped by its rivers.