Surviving the Heat: How Power Reliability Shapes Cooling Access in Central Asia

In the face of intensifying summer temperatures, a new study by the Asian Development Bank (ADB), the OSCE Academy in Bishkek, the Central Asia Regional Economic Cooperation Institute (CAREC), and the Norwegian Institute of International Affairs (NUPI) explores how households in Central Asia are adapting to extreme heat. Conducted in partnership with the Asian Development Bank Institute (ADBI) and the Public Opinion Research Institute in Kazakhstan, the research draws on data from 1,522 households in the Fergana Valley, a transboundary region that spans the Kyrgyz Republic, Tajikistan, and Uzbekistan. The study employs a multinomial probit model to analyze how climate variability, electricity reliability, and household demographics influence decisions to adopt air-conditioning, fans, sunscreen films, or no cooling at all.

Cooling Choices: A Story of Uneven Access

The research reveals a troubling disparity in how cooling technologies are adopted across the three countries. While 22% of surveyed households use air-conditioning, 48% rely on lower-energy methods like electric fans or sunscreen films, and 30% report no cooling measures at all. Among the nations, Uzbekistan stands out with 65% of households using fans or films, while in Tajikistan, only 29.4% do, and in the Kyrgyz Republic, the figure is 50.6%. Alarmingly, 40% of Kyrgyz households and 35% of Tajik households report having no cooling system whatsoever. In contrast, only 14.4% of Uzbek households go without cooling, a clear indicator of inequality in adaptation capacity. Moreover, nearly half of the households without cooling said they had no plans to adopt any form of it in the future, highlighting a serious barrier to climate resilience in the region.

Climate and Cooling: The Role of Cooling Degree Days

To quantify heat stress, the researchers used the metric of cooling degree days (CDD), which measure the intensity and duration of heat exposure above a base temperature of 18°C. CDDs were matched to household data using meteorological inputs from NASA’s POWER Project. The analysis found that Uzbekistan had the highest mean CDD at 1,404, followed by Tajikistan at 1,045, and Kyrgyzstan at 893. Some locations, like Kyrgyz-Kyshtak in Uzbekistan, recorded CDDs as high as 1,641, suggesting highly concentrated seasonal heat. Households located in higher CDD zones were significantly more likely to adopt cooling systems, particularly air-conditioning or fans, underscoring how climatic pressure directly drives adaptation behavior. The study notes that the May–September cooling season in Central Asia is growing more intense and condensed, making efficient cooling not just desirable but essential.

The Hidden Barrier: Power Outages and Grid Instability

Despite full electricity access in all three countries, power supply reliability emerges as a critical constraint on adaptation. About 64% of households reported experiencing scheduled or rolling blackouts, with average monthly outage durations at 33 hours and extremes reaching 200 hours in some areas of Uzbekistan. These blackouts have a substantial negative impact on the adoption of air-conditioning, which is highly dependent on stable electricity. However, the use of fans or sunscreen films, less energy-intensive by nature, remains largely unaffected by outages. In rural areas, especially, frequent power disruptions discourage the installation of air-conditioning systems, even when households face severe heat stress. The researchers confirmed these findings by testing models that replaced binary outage indicators with categories for outage duration (1–16 hours, 17–50 hours, and 50–200 hours), finding a strong deterrent effect of longer outages on AC usage.

Who Cools and How: Income, Education, and Vulnerability

Socioeconomic factors sharply shape the cooling landscape. Households headed by individuals with tertiary education are significantly more likely to adopt air-conditioning, especially in urban areas. Similarly, income is a decisive factor: middle- and high-income households show higher adoption rates for both ACs and fans. Urban households in general are more likely to install ACs, while rural families tend to rely on less costly methods or go without any cooling at all. Interestingly, households with elderly members are more inclined to adopt ACs, likely due to the vulnerability of older individuals to heat-related illnesses. However, larger households, particularly those with many children, are less likely to invest in air-conditioning or even fans, possibly because of higher overall costs and limited disposable income. The analysis revealed that these families are at heightened risk of heat exposure, often stuck with no cooling at all due to financial or infrastructural limitations.

Policy Takeaways: Solar Potential and Sustainable Cooling

The study closes with urgent recommendations. Improving power grid reliability is paramount, particularly if policymakers hope to encourage widespread adoption of air-conditioning. At the same time, the researchers emphasize the potential of solar energy to meet summer cooling demands. Solar irradiation in Central Asia coincides with peak cooling needs, making rooftop solar installations a highly strategic solution. The authors also call for greater investment in passive cooling solutions such as insulation, reflective roofing, and natural ventilation. Urban planning tools, including tree planting and green spaces, could help mitigate the urban heat island effect. Furthermore, the creation of community cooling centers could provide essential relief during peak heat events. While this study focuses primarily on household-level choices, future research should explore the drivers of power outages, assess the impact of electricity tariffs, and expand the scope to include other sustainable cooling practices.

The report comprehensively explores cooling behavior in Central Asia, offers a sobering yet actionable roadmap for regional adaptation. As climate stress mounts and temperatures rise, ensuring equitable access to cooling will be central to safeguarding public health, productivity, and social stability across the region. The cooling divide is real, but with coordinated investments in infrastructure, policy, and public awareness, it can be narrowed, one household at a time.