IAEA Projects Nuclear Power Capacity Could More Than Double by 2050

The International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) has once again raised its long-term projections for global nuclear energy expansion, marking the fifth consecutive year of upward revisions. The announcement was made by IAEA Director General Rafael Mariano Grossi at the 69th IAEA General Conference in Vienna, where he unveiled the Agency’s flagship annual report, Energy, Electricity and Nuclear Power Estimates for the Period up to 2050.

Nuclear Capacity on Track for Record Growth

At the end of 2024, the world had 417 operational nuclear reactors with a combined capacity of 377 gigawatts electric (GW(e)). According to the IAEA’s updated high case projection, that figure could climb to 992 GW(e) by 2050—more than 2.6 times today’s level. Even under the low case projection, nuclear capacity is forecast to rise by 50% to 561 GW(e).

A major driver of this expansion will be small modular reactors (SMRs), which are projected to make up 24% of new capacity in the high case and 5% in the low case. SMRs are seen as a flexible and scalable complement to conventional large nuclear plants, particularly attractive for countries with smaller grids or more limited resources.

Post-Fukushima Recovery and Rising Momentum

This continued upward revision represents a significant turnaround from earlier years. In the wake of Japan’s Fukushima Daiichi nuclear accident in 2011, global nuclear forecasts were sharply downgraded. But in 2021, the IAEA revised its annual projections upward for the first time in a decade. Since then, the high case projection has risen by 25%, from 792 GW(e) in 2021 to 992 GW(e) today.

“The IAEA’s steadily rising annual projections underscore a growing global consensus: nuclear power is indispensable for achieving clean, reliable and sustainable energy for all,” said Grossi.

How the Projections Are Calculated

The IAEA’s modelling accounts for a range of factors, including:

• Current operational reactors, their expected lifetimes, and possible licence renewals.

• Planned shutdowns and scheduled power uprates to extend or enhance reactor output.

• Ongoing construction projects and plausible new builds anticipated over the next several decades.

The low case projection assumes that current trends in technology, markets, and resources continue with limited policy changes. In contrast, the high case projection incorporates declared national intentions for nuclear expansion and assumes stronger policy support and financing.

The report stresses that the high case is both plausible and technically feasible, though achieving it will require enabling factors such as:

• Supportive national policies.

• Significant investment flows into nuclear infrastructure.

• Workforce development to build the next generation of nuclear engineers and technicians.

• Harmonized regulatory frameworks to accelerate SMR deployment and reduce project risks.

Nuclear Power and the Clean Energy Transition

The IAEA’s findings align with a broader international trend of governments turning back to nuclear energy to meet climate goals and ensure energy security. With growing demand for low-carbon electricity and increasing concerns about energy independence, nuclear power is being positioned as a critical complement to renewables.

Grossi emphasized that nuclear’s role is not just about generating power but about enabling the global transition to a cleaner and more resilient energy system.

Looking Ahead

As the world moves toward 2050, the IAEA’s revised projections suggest nuclear power could play a central role in delivering affordable, reliable, and sustainable electricity. With SMRs on the horizon, new financing models emerging, and governments re-evaluating energy strategies, the sector appears poised for its most significant expansion in decades.