Paraguay’s Flood Risk Crisis: Urban Poor Bear the Brunt of Rising Climate Threats

The World Bank’s Poverty Global Practice Department, in collaboration with the Economic and Human Development Center (CEDEH) in Paraguay, has released a groundbreaking report that sheds new light on how floods interact with social inequality in the country. Authored by Paul Ervin, Lyliana Gayoso, and Eliana Rubiano Matulevich, the study marks a significant breakthrough by linking household-level survey data with advanced flood hazard models. It reveals how the poorest households often face not only greater chances of flooding but also far more severe consequences, with climate change and rapid urbanization making the problem worse every year.

When the Waters Rise, the Poor Sink Deeper

Flooding is the most common weather-related disaster in Paraguay, and its impacts are intensifying. Driven by shifts in El Niño and La Niña cycles and compounded by rising urban populations, extreme rainfall events are becoming both more frequent and more severe. In 2019 alone, over 60,000 families were displaced by floods. The report highlights how such events contribute to an increase in poverty by nearly two percentage points in recent years, through lost assets, reduced productivity, and mounting debt. These shocks not only trap vulnerable households in cycles of poverty but also discourage investment in better livelihoods, pushing families to prioritize survival over growth. Urban flooding, worsened by inadequate infrastructure and poor waste management, has emerged as one of the country’s most pressing challenges.

Measuring Risk Beyond Geography

What makes this study unique is its method. The researchers used Paraguay’s 2021 Permanent Household Survey, which gathered socioeconomic details and GPS coordinates for 4,646 households, and overlaid this information with high-resolution flood hazard maps developed by Fathom in 2019. These maps simulate the depth and probability of both fluvial (river) and pluvial (surface water) floods across a range of return periods, from common five-year floods to once-in-a-thousand-year catastrophes. Rather than classify households as simply “at risk” or “not at risk,” the authors created a Flood Exposure Index that measures both the likelihood and severity of flooding. This allowed them to show not only which households are threatened, but how deep and how often the waters might rise. The result is a far more accurate and revealing picture of vulnerability.

Urban Poor Face the Heaviest Burden

The findings show that nearly one in four Paraguayan households, 23.3 percent, are exposed to flood risk. Yet this exposure is anything but uniform. In urban areas, poor households are significantly more vulnerable, with 27.1 percent exposed compared to 21 percent of non-poor households. In Asunción, the disparity becomes staggering: 62.6 percent of poor households face flood risk, compared to 37.2 percent of wealthier households. The depth of flooding also varies dramatically. During smaller, more common floods, poor urban households are hit by waters almost four times deeper than those affecting non-poor households, while during catastrophic events, the depths are roughly double. By contrast, rural areas present a different story. Non-poor households are slightly more exposed than poor households, 26.4 percent versus 22.9 percent, but the difference is not statistically significant. Only in the department of Itapúa does the divide become meaningful, where non-poor households are twice as likely to be at risk as poor households.

Inequality Written Into the Landscape

Income plays a clear role in shaping vulnerability. The study shows that a 10 percent increase in household income reduces the probability of flood exposure by 2.8 percent and the severity by 3.2 percent in urban areas. Yet risk is not just about money. Households headed by less educated individuals, those with more children, overcrowded living conditions, and homes built with poor-quality materials are all more exposed to flooding. In rural Paraguay, female-headed households and those in overcrowded dwellings face particularly high risk. Surprisingly, receiving social assistance or working in agriculture showed no significant connection to exposure, raising questions about how current support programs target at-risk communities. These findings emphasize that vulnerability is multidimensional: it is about where people live, who they are, and the resources they have to cope when disaster strikes.

Building Resilience with Inclusive Policies

The policy implications are urgent. The authors argue that building flood defenses alone will not solve the problem. Instead, an integrated approach that blends poverty reduction, urban planning, and disaster risk management is essential. In cities, zoning reforms to prevent settlements in floodplains, voluntary relocation with proper compensation, and major investments in drainage and protective infrastructure are crucial. Housing programs could offer grants or loans for flood-proofing, stricter building codes in risk-prone areas, and incentives for affordable housing in safer zones. In rural areas, gender-sensitive measures could address the vulnerabilities of female-headed households, while reducing overcrowding remains a priority across both urban and rural settings. The report also urges better data collection, including surveys that capture household flood protection measures and adaptation strategies, and improved risk communication that considers language barriers, particularly among Guaraní-speaking households. Strengthened early-warning systems, waste management reforms, and community-level resilience programs round out the agenda.

Climate change is ensuring that floods will continue to increase in severity, and without urgent, equity-focused interventions, Paraguay’s poor will continue to bear the heaviest burden. The disparities documented in this research underscore the urgent need for policies that not only build levees but also address the deeper inequities that place some households at far greater risk than others. By showing how floods intersect with poverty at the household level, the report provides a model for other countries facing similar climate-driven challenges. In Paraguay, as the authors make clear, the waters are rising, but they are rising unevenly, and unless decisive action is taken, the poorest will continue to be left most exposed.