Global logistics must prioritize risk resilience amid geopolitical shocks

The logistics sector, a backbone of global trade, is increasingly exposed to a labyrinth of interlinked risks. The past few years, from the Suez Canal blockade to pandemic-era port congestions, have laid bare the weaknesses of hyper-optimized but brittle transport networks. In this unstable landscape, the need for effective risk and crisis management strategies has never been more urgent.

A new academic study provides a rigorous framework for understanding how logistics firms can strengthen their resilience. Titled “Risk and Crisis Management Strategies in the Logistics Sector: Theoretical Approaches and Practical Models” and published in the journal Future Transportation, the research combines empirical interviews with industry experts and analytical modeling to identify the most critical interventions that safeguard supply chains during crises.

What risks threaten logistics networks and why they matter

The logistics industry, central to the uninterrupted movement of goods across continents, faces a complex web of interdependent risks. These risks fall into four primary categories, geopolitical, economic, environmental, and operational. Geopolitical events such as trade wars, sanctions, and regional conflicts have emerged as dominant disruptors. The study points to events like the 2021 Suez Canal crisis to illustrate how a single chokepoint can trigger widespread global supply delays. Economic downturns further strain operations, as inflation, volatile fuel prices, and reduced consumer demand shrink profit margins, particularly for small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs).

Environmental risks, including natural disasters and climate-related infrastructure failures, are intensifying. Logistics systems face threats from floods, hurricanes, and wildfires, which can wipe out transportation corridors and warehousing facilities. Operational risks, meanwhile, include aging infrastructure, rising costs, and acute labor shortages, especially of skilled truck drivers, as the European market grapples with workforce gaps exceeding 20 percent. Each of these challenges contributes to systemic fragility. The researchers underscore that the intertwined nature of supply chains means that a disruption in one node - be it a port, rail hub, or customs checkpoint - can cascade throughout the network. These insights emphasize the growing need to anticipate and adapt to risk, rather than merely react to it.

Which strategies work: Lessons from industry experts and data analysis

To explore which mitigation strategies are most effective, the study employs a hybrid methodology combining qualitative interviews and the Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP), a structured decision-making model. Expert input was collected from logistics managers, customs officials, technology providers, and association representatives. These interviews revealed strong industry preferences, as well as operational constraints, which informed the AHP model’s final rankings of strategic priorities.

According to both the interview data and AHP findings, route diversification emerges as the most critical strategy. This involves using multiple suppliers and transport corridors, and it proved particularly effective in shielding companies from geopolitical or trade-related disruptions. Experts consistently ranked it highest, citing its direct impact on maintaining service continuity during crises. Business continuity planning followed as the second most important approach. This includes contingency procedures, financial buffers, and workforce protocols designed to keep operations functional during emergency conditions. The AHP model quantified its importance while expert feedback highlighted its varying implementation based on company size. Larger enterprises tend to integrate detailed continuity frameworks, while SMEs often rely on ad hoc measures due to resource constraints.

Supplier collaboration, while moderately rated, revealed more mixed opinions. Some professionals emphasized its role in stabilizing supply during economic slumps, while others questioned its utility in geopolitical emergencies where alternate sourcing becomes more urgent than partner loyalty. Telematics and predictive technologies, including AI-powered forecasting, real-time vehicle tracking, and blockchain-enabled documentation, received the lowest ratings among the four strategies. Although these tools enhance visibility and efficiency, many experts viewed them as operational enhancements rather than core crisis mitigation measures. High costs, complex integration, and uncertain returns contribute to hesitancy in their broader adoption, especially among resource-limited firms.

The study’s heatmap analysis further confirmed these patterns. Route diversification and business continuity planning displayed the strongest positive correlation, suggesting they are often deployed together. Meanwhile, telematics had weak or even negative correlations with other strategies, indicating it is often treated as a standalone upgrade rather than a pillar of risk management. This divergence between technological promise and practical implementation points to a critical gap in digital maturity within the sector.

Building resilience: A blueprint for logistics decision-makers

Beyond ranking strategies, the research offers a roadmap for making logistics systems more robust and adaptive. Experts widely agree that the sector must move from reactive responses to anticipatory planning. Diversifying supply chains geographically and establishing alternate trade routes are now seen as essential, not optional, for logistics resilience. Companies that managed to redirect shipments during the COVID-19 crisis or restructured supply chains in response to Ukraine-related disruptions suffered significantly fewer losses.

Business continuity planning also deserves broader uptake, especially among SMEs. The study urges logistics firms to invest in scenario simulations, pre-crisis decision trees, and stakeholder training programs. Policymakers and trade associations, according to interviewees, can play a facilitative role by offering financial incentives, regulatory flexibility, and knowledge-sharing platforms to improve risk preparedness across the industry.

While technological innovation is not yet a dominant strategy in crisis prevention, it represents a high-potential supplement. As AI, blockchain, and predictive analytics become more affordable and scalable, they can help shift crisis management from a manual to a data-driven process. The researchers recommend deeper integration of these tools with core strategic planning, rather than treating them as isolated operational upgrades.

The study also calls for future research to refine and expand its findings. Sector-specific analysis, comparing air, maritime, and last-mile logistics, would help tailor risk strategies more precisely. Additionally, dynamic AHP models that incorporate real-time data could offer more adaptive decision support, particularly in volatile or fast-changing crisis environments.