World Bank Projects Viet Nam’s Economy to Grow 6.6% in 2025 Amid Strong Start

Viet Nam’s economy is set for another year of robust expansion, with the World Bank forecasting 6.6 percent growth in 2025, following a strong first half that saw output accelerate by 7.5 percent. The latest Viet Nam Economic Update, released today, points to resilient exports and strong manufacturing activity as the key drivers of early-year momentum.

Growth Drivers and Near-Term Outlook

The first half of 2025 benefitted from front-loaded exports, particularly in electronics, textiles, and agricultural products. However, growth is expected to moderate in the second half, as the pace of export expansion returns to more typical levels.

As a highly export-oriented economy, Viet Nam remains exposed to external headwinds such as:

• Slower global growth in major markets like the US, EU, and China.

• Softening international demand for manufactured goods.

• Rising trade-policy uncertainty, which could dampen both business investment and consumer sentiment.

Despite these risks, Viet Nam’s overall performance is expected to remain among the strongest in the Asia-Pacific region.

Medium-Term Projections

Looking beyond 2025, the World Bank projects:

• 6.1 percent growth in 2026, reflecting external moderation.

• A rebound to 6.5 percent in 2027, supported by a recovery in global trade and Viet Nam’s competitive edge as a manufacturing hub.

Viet Nam’s attractiveness to global investors continues to be anchored in its low production costs, strategic location, and expanding network of trade agreements.

Policy Recommendations

To safeguard growth and build resilience, the World Bank recommends that policymakers focus on three main areas:

1. Scaling up public investment – Viet Nam’s relatively low public debt gives the government fiscal space to invest in infrastructure, improve connectivity, and create jobs.

2. Mitigating financial-sector risks – ensuring that credit growth, real estate exposure, and banking sector vulnerabilities are carefully managed.

3. Advancing structural reforms – from enhancing backbone services such as logistics and digital connectivity, to promoting green growth and sustainable development.

“Viet Nam’s low public debt gives the country ample fiscal headroom—policymakers can use well-executed public investment to close infrastructure gaps and create jobs,” said Mariam J. Sherman, World Bank Division Director for Viet Nam, Cambodia, and Lao PDR. “At the same time, accelerating structural reforms to strengthen backbone services, advance green growth, build human capital, and diversify trade will help sustain long-term growth.”

Spotlight on High-Tech Talent

This edition of the report places a special focus on nurturing Viet Nam’s high-tech talents. As the country aspires to achieve high-income status by 2045, its ability to build a skilled workforce will be critical.

Key recommendations include:

• Expanding the pipeline of STEM graduates while raising the number of PhD-level faculty.

• Increasing public and private R&D investment, which currently lags behind regional peers like South Korea and Singapore.

• Strengthening university–industry–government linkages to accelerate technology transfer and innovation.

• Creating opportunities for experts to lead research labs, mentor younger scientists, and commercialize innovations into market-ready products.

The World Bank notes that building a strong foundation of technical expertise will help Viet Nam capture higher-value segments of the global supply chain, particularly in semiconductors, renewable energy, and advanced manufacturing.

Building a Sustainable Future

The report emphasizes that while Viet Nam’s growth remains robust, long-term success will depend on resilience and adaptation. By leveraging its fiscal headroom for investment, supporting innovation, and pushing forward with structural reforms, the country can maintain its competitive edge in a volatile global economy.

As Viet Nam continues its journey toward becoming a high-income nation by 2045, the challenge will be to balance short-term growth pressures with long-term goals—ensuring prosperity, sustainability, and inclusivity.