WTO Report: AI Could Boost Global Trade by 40% if Digital Divide Is Bridged

The 2025 edition of the World Trade Report, launched on 17 September at the opening of the WTO Public Forum in Geneva, projects that artificial intelligence (AI) could profoundly transform the global economy and trading system. According to the flagship study by the WTO Secretariat, with the right mix of policies, AI has the potential to increase the value of cross-border trade in goods and services by up to 40% by 2040, while boosting global GDP by 12-13%.

AI as a Driver of Trade and Growth

The report underscores AI’s ability to lower trade costs, enhance productivity, and widen access to global markets. WTO economists modeled multiple scenarios of AI adoption across low-, middle- and high-income economies, projecting trade growth of 34–37% by 2040, depending on the pace of technological catch-up and supportive policy environments.

Trade will also play a vital role in enabling inclusive AI-supported growth by ensuring access to critical goods that power AI technologies, including semiconductors, raw materials, and other intermediate inputs. In 2023 alone, global trade in such AI-enabling goods reached USD 2.3 trillion.

Unequal Access and Rising Restrictions

Despite its transformative potential, access to AI remains highly uneven across countries. The report warns that without deliberate action, AI risks exacerbating inequality both within and between economies.

• Digital divide: Low- and middle-income economies lag behind in digital infrastructure. A scenario where they close half this gap could yield income gains of 15% and 14% respectively.

• Trade barriers: The number of quantitative restrictions on AI-related goods surged from 130 in 2012 to nearly 500 in 2024, mostly introduced by high- and upper middle-income countries.

• Tariffs: Bound tariffs on AI-enabling goods reach as high as 45% in some low-income economies, restricting access to essential technologies.

The Role of Policy: Inclusion, Skills, and Openness

In her foreword, WTO Director-General Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala emphasized that AI can “create new growth opportunities in all economies” if accompanied by the right enabling frameworks. She stressed that AI’s benefits will only be widely shared if governments invest in education, skills training, and labor market policies to prevent inequality from widening.

“The ongoing political backlash against trade has much to do with underinvestment in education, skills, retraining and social safety nets during these past three or four decades of globalization,” she warned. “We cannot afford to repeat this mistake with AI.”

WTO’s Central Role in Shaping AI and Trade

The report highlights how the WTO can help members maximize the benefits of AI:

• Providing a platform for members to discuss trade-related measures impacting AI. Already, 80 specific trade concerns raised at the WTO have focused on AI.

• Advancing discussions under the Work Programme on E-Commerce, which has examined AI and inclusive trade.

• Encouraging broader participation in the Information Technology Agreement (ITA), which eliminates tariffs on many technology goods.

• Promoting updated commitments under the General Agreement on Trade in Services (GATS) to make AI-related services more accessible and affordable.

Launch at the Public Forum

The report was launched on day one of the WTO Public Forum, with DG Okonjo-Iweala joined by Deputy Director-General Johanna Hill and Marc Bacchetta, head of the Secretariat’s quantitative economic research unit, who presented key findings. The launch was followed by a panel discussion featuring policymakers, business leaders, and academics.

Okonjo-Iweala highlighted that the publication comes “amid the worst disruptions the global trading system has experienced in 80 years,” citing geopolitical tensions, supply chain fragility, and protectionist pressures. Yet she noted that AI represents one of the “bright spots” for trade and growth if managed inclusively.

Looking Ahead

The World Trade Report 2025 concludes that AI could reshape global trade as profoundly as past technological revolutions, but its trajectory will be determined by policy choices. Open, predictable trade regimes, targeted investment in human capital, and global cooperation will be essential to ensure AI contributes to inclusive growth rather than deepening divides.