Eastern Africa Defies Trade Turmoil With Surging Exports, Regional Integration

Eastern Africa is proving unexpectedly resilient in the face of global trade shocks, turning turbulence into opportunity. Despite sweeping US tariffs introduced in April 2025 and persistent geopolitical uncertainty, new data from the United Nations Economic Commission for Africa (UNECA) shows that countries in the region have expanded their exports significantly, outpacing expectations and strengthening both global and regional trade ties.

Eastern Africa’s Rising Exports to the United States

The sharpest gains have come from exports to the United States. The “Liberation Day” tariff package imposed duties of up to 30 percent on major Asian exporters, but African economies were hit with lower rates, giving them a relative advantage.

• Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC): Exports to the US surged by over $1 billion between April and July 2025 compared with the same period in 2024. Much of this was driven by mineral shipments, particularly cobalt and copper, which remain critical for US industries seeking alternatives to Chinese supply chains.

• Ethiopia: Exports rose by a remarkable 95 percent, benefiting from lower tariffs (10%) and strong demand for textiles, leather goods, and agricultural products.

• Kenya: Recorded a 22 percent increase, buoyed by tea, horticulture, and emerging pharmaceutical exports.

These trends are partly explained by trade diversion effects, as US buyers shifted from heavily tariffed Chinese and Asian suppliers to Eastern Africa. Chinese exports to the United States dropped by 35.6% year-on-year as of July 2025, opening new space for African producers.

Momentum in Intra-African Trade

Eastern Africa’s export success is not limited to global markets. Regional integration is showing tangible results under the East African Community (EAC) and the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA).

• In 2024, trade within the EAC surpassed $11 billion for the first time, marking a 22 percent increase from 2023.

• Intra-African trade overall expanded by 8.5 percent, compared with just 0.4 percent growth in exports outside the continent.

The leading drivers include:

• Agricultural produce: tea, coffee, fish, flowers, and fresh vegetables.

• Manufactured goods: textiles, chemicals, cement, pharmaceuticals, and processed foods.

These figures underscore the growing importance of regional value chains and the AfCFTA’s potential to reduce dependence on volatile global markets.

Commodity Boom Boosts Export Revenues

Rising global commodity prices have further strengthened Eastern Africa’s export performance:

• Gold prices climbed over 60 percent between January 2024 and July 2025. Tanzania and Uganda, both major gold exporters, saw revenues soar.

• Coffee prices nearly doubled, benefiting Uganda, Ethiopia, and Kenya.

• Kenya’s tea exports reached a record $1.7 billion in 2024, up from $1.4 billion the previous year.

This commodity-driven boom has boosted national revenues but also highlighted risks of overdependence on resource exports.

Structural Weaknesses Persist

Despite these achievements, structural vulnerabilities remain:

• Minerals dominate exports, now accounting for 53% of all Eastern African exports.

• Manufacturing’s share of exports continues to decline, dropping to 17.5 percent in 2024.

This reliance on raw commodities exposes economies to global price volatility and reduces long-term resilience.

Strategic Policy and Infrastructure Responses

Governments in the region are investing heavily in trade facilitation and infrastructure to consolidate gains and diversify exports:

• Kenya: Launched Phase II of the Dongo Kundu Special Economic Zone, aimed at expanding industrial production and export capacity.

• Tanzania: Completed Tanga Port expansion and developed new agricultural export corridors to link farmers to markets.

• Uganda: Signed a bilateral agreement with Kenya in September 2025 to eliminate non-tariff barriers and ease cross-border trade.

• Rwanda: Developing Rusizi Port to strengthen lake transport and regional logistics.

• Ethiopia: Upgraded the Moyale One-Stop Border Post and expanded industrial parks to boost manufacturing exports.

These measures are part of a broader effort to reduce logistical costs, expand value-added exports, and strengthen regional integration.

Preparing for a Post-AGOA Future

A looming challenge for Eastern Africa is the uncertain future of the African Growth and Opportunity Act (AGOA), the preferential US trade framework set to expire in 2025. While current gains are significant, dependence on AGOA benefits could leave countries vulnerable if the program is not renewed.

UNECA and regional policymakers are emphasizing the need to:

• Diversify export markets, particularly within Africa, Asia, and the Middle East.

• Deepen intra-African trade, leveraging AfCFTA as a long-term growth engine.

• Revitalize manufacturing, to reduce reliance on primary commodities.

Outlook for Regional Trade

Eastern Africa’s recent export performance illustrates a rare story of resilience in an era of global economic turbulence. The subregional office for East Africa of UNECA, which covers 14 countries including Burundi, Comores, DRC, Djibouti, Eritrea, Ethiopia, Kenya, Madagascar, Rwanda, Seychelles, Somalia, South Sudan, Tanzania, and Uganda, has highlighted that while structural challenges remain, the region is better positioned than before to turn trade shocks into strategic opportunities.

The key to sustaining this momentum will lie in balancing short-term commodity windfalls with long-term investments in industrialization, logistics, and regional integration. If managed well, Eastern Africa could emerge not only as a resilient trading bloc but as a pivotal player in global supply chains shifting away from Asia.