India's Gold Market on Rise: Forecasted Trends and Economic Impacts

India's domestic gold prices are expected to experience substantial fluctuations over the course of 2026 and into 2027. The ICICI Bank Global Markets report predicts a trading range of Rs 1,50,000 to Rs 1,80,000 per ten grams for 2026, with a subsequent rise to Rs 1,60,000 to Rs 1,90,000 in 2027. This forecast mirrors ongoing global gold price trends and reflects the steady depreciation of the Indian Rupee.

Year-to-date, the domestic gold market has surged by about 20 per cent, driven by factors including a 7 per cent decline in the Rupee, rising global prices, and recent customs duty adjustments. The report suggests a further near-term uptick of 2 to 3 per cent as markets absorb the impact of a customs duty increase from 6 to 15 per cent effective May 13, 2026.

However, projected growth faces potential challenges. A slower trajectory might occur if the global gold price trend moderates, especially if the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) implements tightening measures. India's gold imports surged 81 per cent YoY in April, yet import volumes have decreased due to high costs dampening physical demand. On a global scale, gold values rose 5 per cent YTD, despite a dip prompted by the West Asian conflict, affected by gold's inverse relationship with the strong US Dollar.

(With inputs from agencies.)