Public Schools Hit Harder but Long-Term Learning Gains Hold Steady in Pakistan

The Asian Development Bank (ADB), working in collaboration with researchers from Pomona College, the Harvard Kennedy School, and the Center for Economic Research in Pakistan (CERP), has released a major study examining the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on learning in rural Pakistan. Using a 2024 survey of 108 villages in Punjab and linking it with two decades of data from the Learning and Educational Achievement in Pakistan Schools (LEAPS) project, the research reveals that while the pandemic disrupted households and schools, it left surprisingly modest long-term scars on education. Household income shocks, rather than the length of school closures, emerged as the critical factor affecting learning outcomes.

Income Losses Hit Public Schools Harder

The study demonstrates that income drops during the early stages of the pandemic were directly tied to student performance. Villages where more families lost income saw test scores decline by around 0.06 standard deviations, equivalent to losing two or three months of learning. Public school students were disproportionately affected, recording average declines of 0.08 standard deviations, while private school children saw little measurable setback. This disparity widened the pre-existing achievement gap between the two systems, though the researchers emphasize that these pandemic-related losses remain smaller than the influence of enduring factors such as gender, maternal education, and household wealth. Crucially, the average seven months of school closures between 2020 and 2022 showed no lasting correlation with learning levels two years after reopening, undermining fears that physical closures alone drove lasting damage.

Girls Surpass Boys Across Subjects

An unexpected and encouraging outcome of the survey was the consistent outperformance of girls over boys. Female students scored around 0.26 standard deviations higher overall, excelling not only in languages such as English and Urdu but also in mathematics, where boys traditionally held an advantage. This shift marks a significant evolution in Pakistan’s education landscape, where gender inequality has long been a concern. Meanwhile, private school students continued to enjoy substantial advantages over public school peers, reflecting both the resources available and the socio-economic status of families opting for private education. The report highlights that inequalities existed before the pandemic and continue to shape outcomes more powerfully than the temporary COVID-19 shock.

Recovery and Progress in the Long View

Placing the pandemic within a 20-year perspective, the study paints a picture of resilience and continuity. Between 2004 and 2011, test scores in rural villages rose by 0.14 standard deviations. From 2011 to 2024, despite the pandemic years, scores increased by a much steeper 0.37 standard deviations. The annualized learning growth rate rose from 1.9 percent to 2.5 percent in the latter period. Improvements were seen across public and private schools, boys and girls alike. Strikingly, three-quarters of surveyed villages recorded a higher average learning in 2024 than in 2011. Far from reversing progress, the pandemic years appear to be a temporary disruption along a continuing upward trajectory in rural education.

The private school market, a defining feature of Pakistan’s education system, also showed remarkable adaptability. School openings slowed during the pandemic, with just 13–14 new institutions established annually in 2019–2021 compared to 20 in earlier years. Yet by 2022, openings rebounded to pre-pandemic levels. School closures did not spike, and long-term attrition rates remained consistent with previous decades. This recovery underscores the strong demand for education among rural communities, even in the face of financial strain.

Teaching Becomes an Even More Female Profession

The teaching workforce underwent a notable transformation during this period. Teaching has historically been one of the few professional options for educated rural women, and the trend toward feminization intensified after the pandemic. By 2024, women made up over 77 percent of all teachers, with private schools employing an astonishing 94 percent female staff. Public school teachers continued to earn salaries around seven times higher than their private counterparts and were often recruited from outside local communities, while private schools drew heavily on young, unmarried women living in the same villages. Despite concerns that revenue losses during closures would trigger mass layoffs in private schools, the number of teachers per school actually increased. This resilience, the study argues, reflects the growing pool of educated women entering the labor force and the persistence of teaching as their most viable career path.

A Temporary Crisis, Not a Lasting Collapse

The central message of the research is cautiously optimistic. The pandemic undoubtedly strained Pakistan’s education system, magnifying inequalities between public and private schools and exposing the vulnerability of poorer households. Yet its impact was not catastrophic. By 2024, students had largely caught up, and the long-term upward trend in learning remained intact. Girls strengthened their lead over boys, private schools recovered quickly, and the feminization of the teaching profession continued apace. Above all, the study concludes that the most powerful determinants of learning outcomes are the same as they were before COVID-19: socio-economic background, gender, and school type. The coronavirus shock, while disruptive, did not derail the steady, if uneven, progress of rural education in Pakistan.