Eating into GDP: New Report Links Poor Diets to Billions in Economic Losses

A groundbreaking report titled Uncovering the Economic Costs of Unhealthy Diets, jointly authored by the World Bank and the Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) alongside national research institutions, the Food and Nutrition Research Institute (FNRI) in the Philippines and the Ethiopian Public Health Institute (EPHI), delivers an urgent message: unhealthy diets are not only a health crisis but a profound economic one. Applying an innovative methodology to estimate the economic burden of diet-related malnutrition and disease in Ethiopia and the Philippines, the report captures both direct medical costs and broader productivity losses due to premature death and illness. With child undernutrition stubbornly high and adult obesity and noncommunicable diseases (NCDs) escalating in many low- and middle-income countries (LMICs), this work offers a wake-up call to policymakers and development agencies alike.

A Heavy Price Tag on Poor Nutrition

Globally, poor dietary habits are associated with 5 million deaths annually from NCDs, equivalent to 2.2 percent of global GDP. In LMICs alone, the World Bank projects that obesity-related costs could soar to US$7 trillion by 2035. Meanwhile, the FAO’s 2024 State of Food and Agriculture report estimates the hidden environmental, social, and health-related costs of agrifood systems at over US$10 trillion, 70 percent of which stem from unhealthy diets. The contrast is striking: while the average cost of a healthy diet is about US$3.96 per day, investing just US$1.50 more per person daily over the cost of a basic energy-sufficient diet could dramatically curb future health costs, reduce premature mortality, and spur economic growth.

From Survey to Simulation: A New Method for LMICs

To better understand the real cost of poor diets, the authors developed a two-part methodology, which they tested using national survey data from Ethiopia and the Philippines. The first part focuses on child stunting, using the Lives Saved Tool (LiST) to estimate how much stunting can be attributed to diet versus other public health factors. The second part targets adult NCDs, evaluating three key risk factors linked to poor diets: high body mass index (BMI), high systolic blood pressure (SBP), and high fasting blood glucose (FBG). These are analyzed using the Global Diet Quality Score (GDQS), which is based on individuals’ 24-hour dietary intake. Combining these tools with mortality and productivity data from the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) study, the report estimates both treatment and mortality-related economic losses associated with diet-driven diseases.

In the Philippines, the economic cost of child stunting in 2015 was pegged at US$4.4 billion (1.5% of GDP), with nearly half, US$1.98 billion, linked directly to poor diets. Ethiopia, grappling with even higher undernutrition rates, saw stunting cost an estimated US$5.5 billion in 2009, an astonishing 16.5% of its GDP, again with 50 percent attributed to dietary inadequacies. The results illustrate that unhealthy diets during early life incur severe long-term economic damage due to lower educational attainment, cognitive impairment, and reduced lifetime productivity.

When Eating Poorly Turns Deadly, and Expensive

The picture becomes even more concerning when adult NCDs are factored in. In 2014, the Philippines lost an estimated 5.2 percent of its GDP to diet-related NCDs, 0.74 percent from treatment costs, and a much larger 4.46 percent from productivity lost to premature death. In Ethiopia, the comparable total in 2011 stood at 1.58 percent of GDP. Crucially, unhealthy diets were found to be widespread across all BMI groups, debunking the myth that obesity alone is the key indicator of dietary risk. Even those of normal weight were at heightened risk of NCDs due to poor intake of fruits, vegetables, and whole grains, or excessive consumption of sugars, fats, and processed foods.

The report also found that in both countries, diet quality, as measured by GDQS, was notably poor. In the Philippines, the average GDQS score was 15.3, suggesting a high risk of both nutrient inadequacy and NCDs. Ethiopia fared slightly better with a score of 18.0, largely because of lower intake of ultra-processed and unhealthy foods, though both countries showed alarmingly low consumption of nutrient-dense foods like dark leafy greens, legumes, and nuts. However, the study did not find statistically significant correlations between GDQS and clinical risk markers (SBP, FBG) in the Philippines, likely due to limitations in survey design, including the use of single-day dietary recall.

A Call to Action for Healthier Food Systems

Despite limitations, including outdated data and a lack of longitudinal dietary tracking, the methodology provides a replicable, policy-relevant framework for other countries. It avoids double-counting the impacts of multiple dietary risk factors while acknowledging that BMI is an imperfect proxy for diet quality. The report emphasizes the need for integrated, multisectoral responses, not just from health ministries, but from agriculture, education, and finance sectors too. Improving diets, the authors argue, isn’t just about personal choice or nutritional science; it’s an economic imperative. Governments are urged to invest in nutrition-sensitive agriculture, public health interventions, and especially in data systems that track diet quality at the population level.

In both Ethiopia and the Philippines, the stakes are high. As urbanization accelerates and food systems evolve, countries risk replacing one form of malnutrition with another. Stunting, obesity, diabetes, and cardiovascular disease are not isolated challenges, but part of a larger, systemic failure to ensure access to affordable, nutritious food. This report sheds light on the long shadow cast by unhealthy diets and calls on global and national actors to act before these costs become even harder to bear.