Taiwan's Eastern Defenses Under Threat: Insights from a War Simulation

A recent war simulation exercise has sounded the alarm on Taiwan's eastern defenses, with evidence suggesting that the region is increasingly susceptible to strikes from China's People's Liberation Army (PLA).

Conducted in June, the large-scale tabletop exercise was scrutinized at a Taipei event organized by the Taipei School of Economics and Political Science Foundation. A subsequent book series detailing the results has been released.

According to the Taipei Times, the war games concluded that Taiwan can no longer rely on its eastern region as a safe haven for critical military assets. The PLA's deployment of submarines and long-range bombers, capable of firing cruise missiles from the east, poses a significant threat, even to the fortified Chiashan Air Force Base in Hualien County. Former chief of the general staff, Admiral Lee Hsi-ming, warned that a precisely aimed strike at the cave entrance of the base could incapacitate aircraft stationed inside.

The simulation also pointed out that Taiwan's traditional strategy focusing on western coastal defenses is inadequate. Huang Chieh-cheng, Chairman of the Council on Strategic and Wargaming Studies, highlighted how rapid PLA offensives against Penghu County and eastern Taiwan quickly overpowered defenders, thwarting timely reinforcement efforts.

Participants in the simulation, acting as foreign allies, advocated for stronger northern and eastern defenses, moving away from the focus on the west. Taiwan's navy, according to the simulation results, faces a critical decision: confront a Chinese carrier group in the Pacific or surrender control of the Taiwan Strait. Both options risk isolating Taiwan's fleet.

Experts recommended a strategic realignment of naval forces closer to eastern Taiwan, enabling coordination with land-based anti-ship and air defense systems.

The exercise underscored the need for explicit rules of engagement to counter China's 'gray zone' operations, which could masquerade as military drills. Notably, Taiwan's outlying islands remain vulnerable to potential isolation.