UNHCR Warns of Looming Refugee Crisis Amid Israel-Iran Escalation

As tensions between Israel and Iran spiral dangerously, the UN Refugee Agency (UNHCR) has joined global leaders, including the UN Secretary-General, in calling for an immediate and comprehensive de-escalation of hostilities. The situation is already driving people from their homes and threatening to trigger another large-scale humanitarian emergency in a region long burdened by conflict, displacement, and instability.

Rising Violence Sparks Civilian Displacement

According to early UNHCR assessments, both countries are already witnessing internal population movements. In Iran, civilians from Tehran and other urban areas have reportedly begun relocating—some seeking refuge in neighboring countries out of fear that the conflict could escalate further. Simultaneously, in Israel, incoming shelling and aerial attacks have forced many residents to relocate domestically, while others are attempting to leave the country altogether.

The UNHCR emphasizes that civilians on both sides are bearing the brunt of the violence. “This region has already endured more than its share of war, loss, and displacement – we cannot allow another refugee crisis to take root,” warned Filippo Grandi, the UN High Commissioner for Refugees. “The time to de-escalate is right now. Once people are forced to flee, there’s no quick way back – and all too often, the consequences last for generations.”

Regional and Global Implications

The Middle East already hosts millions of refugees and internally displaced people (IDPs). Prolonged violence between Iran and Israel would exacerbate the region’s humanitarian burden and potentially destabilize neighboring countries, many of which are already struggling to meet the needs of existing refugee populations.

Iran itself is currently the largest refugee-hosting nation globally, sheltering approximately 3.5 million refugees, primarily from Afghanistan. An intensification of conflict could strain Iran’s already overstretched support systems, leaving Afghan refugees—many of whom have fled cycles of violence and persecution—facing yet another chapter of hardship and uncertainty.

Neighboring countries, such as Turkey, Iraq, Lebanon, Jordan, and the Gulf states, could see an influx of new refugees. These nations would need international support to uphold protection standards and provide access to essential services.

UNHCR’s Call for Protection and Preparedness

The UNHCR has issued a direct appeal to states in the region to uphold international obligations and respect the right to seek asylum. The agency urges all parties to facilitate access to humanitarian assistance and to ensure that borders remain open for those fleeing violence.

Grandi stressed the critical importance of protecting civilian life and infrastructure, saying, “Every day that the conflict escalates further could trigger additional humanitarian needs in a region already hosting millions of refugees and internally displaced people.”

UNHCR teams are already operational in both Iran and Israel, as well as in many of their neighboring countries. Emergency stocks of humanitarian supplies are being positioned strategically to ensure rapid response capability if the situation deteriorates further. This includes tents, blankets, hygiene kits, food items, and emergency medical supplies.

Civilian Infrastructure and Safe Zones Under Threat

One of the gravest concerns for humanitarian agencies is the direct impact of aerial and missile strikes on civilian infrastructure such as hospitals, schools, and housing complexes. With both sides trading increasingly sophisticated military strikes, there is a real danger that densely populated urban areas could become theatres of war—placing millions at risk.

The UN and its agencies reiterate that under international humanitarian law, the targeting of civilians and civilian infrastructure is strictly prohibited. UNHCR and its partners are urging all parties to abide by these principles to prevent a catastrophic humanitarian fallout.

A Race Against Time

The evolving situation underscores the fragility of peace and the volatility of geopolitics in the Middle East. A full-blown conflict between Israel and Iran could unravel decades of efforts to stabilize the region and ignite conflicts in adjacent territories.

UNHCR's appeal is not only for de-escalation but also for proactive international cooperation to prevent an irreversible humanitarian disaster. Governments, donors, and international partners must prepare now, ensuring the infrastructure and funding necessary to support those who may be forced to flee.

As the WMO warned of accelerating climate stress in Asia, this potential conflict adds a volatile human dimension to an already fragile region. War and displacement, compounded by environmental stress, could create a multidimensional crisis that resonates far beyond the immediate zone of conflict.