Tajikistan Charts Future of Work with ILO-Led Employment Foresight Workshop

In a landmark initiative aimed at anticipating and responding to long-term labour market transformations, the International Labour Organization (ILO), in partnership with the Ministry of Labour, Migration and Employment of the Population of the Republic of Tajikistan, convened the “Employment and Skills Foresight Workshop: Tajikistan 2045” on 18 July 2025 in Dushanbe.

The event brought together ILO’s tripartite constituents—government, employers, and workers—alongside national experts to explore various scenarios for Tajikistan’s future labour market. Drawing on international foresight methodologies and data-driven analyses, the workshop emphasized the need for strategic policy reforms, skills development, and inclusive social dialogue to adapt to evolving global trends.

Responding to Global Megatrends: A National Imperative

The workshop addressed the significant impacts of global megatrends—such as technological change, climate change, and demographic shifts—on employment, skills, and economic structures in Tajikistan.

Technological innovations including artificial intelligence, automation, and data analytics are expected to boost productivity while transforming occupational profiles. These trends are projected to create new high-skilled roles, particularly in IT, digital services, and advanced manufacturing, while simultaneously reducing demand for routine, low-skill tasks in both public and private sectors.

Climate change, another disruptive force, is reshaping the economy by phasing out jobs in carbon-intensive sectors and boosting employment in green industries such as renewable energy, sustainable agriculture, and environmental management. These transitions require a future-ready workforce capable of adapting to emerging green jobs and sustainability-focused occupations.

Leadership and National Priorities

Mr. Abdurahmon Ashuralizoda, Deputy Minister for Labour, Migration and Employment of the Population of Tajikistan, opened the workshop by affirming the government’s commitment to proactive labour market strategies.

“It is important that we take the necessary steps to prepare ourselves for the future; otherwise, the Republic will face constraints such as a shortage of professionals and skilled workers,” he said.

He underscored two major national targets:

• The creation of 1.4 million decent job opportunities by 2045

• The expansion of vocational education and training systems, to equip citizens with market-relevant skills

These objectives, he noted, are essential to ensuring inclusive, sustainable, and resilient economic growth over the next two decades.

Perspectives from Employers and Trade Unions

Mr. Jamshed Yunusov, Head of the Socio-Economic Department at the Federation of Independent Trade Unions of Tajikistan, emphasized the importance of adapting labour policies to address emerging employment realities, such as:

• The informal economy

• The rise of non-standard employment

• Issues of occupational safety and health

He called for strengthening social dialogue through the national tripartite commission to ensure all voices—workers, employers, and government—are represented in shaping the future of work.

Mr. Ayombek Akramov, Chairman of the Union of Employers of Tajikistan, stressed the urgent need to embrace digital transformation and invest in skills alignment with industry needs. He emphasized that workforce preparedness is critical to achieving national development goals, increasing productivity, and improving living standards.

Policy Solutions for a Resilient Workforce

Participants at the workshop examined likely transformations in sectoral employment patterns, skills demand, and education and training requirements leading up to 2045. Among the proposed strategic interventions were:

• Sector-specific workforce development plans, particularly in agriculture, energy, and services

• Enhanced vocational and technical education (TVET) systems aligned with future job roles

• Support for micro, small and medium enterprises (MSMEs) to drive inclusive job creation

• Implementation of labour market information systems (LMIS) to track changes in employment demand

• Expansion of lifelong learning opportunities to help workers reskill and upskill

Importance of Foresight and Tripartite Dialogue

Mr. Kazutoshi Chatani, ILO Senior Employment Specialist, highlighted the role of strategic foresight exercises in policymaking:

“This exercise allows tripartite constituents to form shared understandings of future opportunities and challenges, which serves as a basis for policy discussions,” he said.

He praised the inclusive nature of the workshop and reiterated ILO’s continued commitment to supporting Tajikistan’s efforts to build a future-oriented labour market.

The workshop forms part of an ongoing action plan initiated by the Government of Tajikistan and supported through ILO funding. It aligns with broader global frameworks, including the ILO Centenary Declaration for the Future of Work, which encourages countries to invest in human capabilities, strengthen labour institutions, and promote inclusive growth.

Next Steps for Tajikistan

The insights and outcomes from the workshop will inform upcoming national employment policies, education reforms, and public-private partnerships aimed at building a resilient, future-ready economy.

The event also represents a model for evidence-based policy design, where government institutions, employers, and trade unions collectively contribute to shaping the country’s long-term economic and social trajectory.

As Tajikistan looks ahead to 2045, the groundwork laid by this foresight initiative will be critical in ensuring that no worker is left behind—and that the economy remains competitive, inclusive, and sustainable.