From Ponds to Profits: Aquaculture Recognized as Core to Food and Climate Resilience

The World Bank’s latest technical report, produced with contributions from the International Institute for Sustainable Development, the American University’s School of International Service, and leading aquaculture experts from countries such as Bangladesh, Egypt, Ecuador, Japan, Indonesia, and Norway, makes a compelling case for treating aquaculture as a measurable source of national wealth. Until now, the Changing Wealth of Nations assessments have recognized marine fish stocks and mangroves as “blue natural capital” but excluded farmed fish and aquatic plants. This omission, the report argues, obscures the true scale of economic value generated by aquaculture, which has grown into one of the most dynamic food production industries worldwide.

A Sector Worth Billions

The report outlines the astonishing growth of aquaculture. In 2020, the sector produced 123 million tonnes valued at $281.5 billion, overtaking capture fisheries at 90 million tonnes and $141 billion. Per capita fish consumption has more than doubled since the 1960s, and projections suggest aquatic production could climb by another 14 percent by 2030, reaching 106 million tonnes. Asia dominates, with China accounting for more than 60 percent of aquaculture value, followed by India, Vietnam, Indonesia, Chile, Norway, Bangladesh, Japan, Ecuador, Thailand, Egypt, and South Korea. Despite this prominence, aquaculture’s contribution has never been systematically calculated as a form of wealth. The study applies the resource rent method, subtracting costs from revenues to estimate long-term value, to demonstrate that aquaculture already plays a role comparable to other renewable assets.

Case Studies from Six Nations

Six country case studies highlight both potential and complexity. Norway, the birthplace of modern salmon farming, saw production grow from 276,000 tonnes in 1995 to nearly 1.5 million tonnes in 2020. Global output of salmonids reached 2.8 million tonnes, and Norwegian resource rents soared from negligible levels before 2012 to more than $2 billion by 2020, prompting the government to introduce a 25 percent tax on cage-based salmon production. In Egypt, tilapia and mullet farming expanded from 71,000 tonnes in 1995 to 1.6 million tonnes in 2020. Resource rents were estimated at $500 million annually, though farmers face volatile feed costs and dependence on credit. Yet, aquaculture supplies 80 percent of the country’s fish, making it indispensable to the country's food security.

Ecuador’s shrimp industry shows how innovation drives profitability. Disease-free hatcheries and biosecure practices helped output climb from 96,000 tonnes in 1995 to 760,000 tonnes in 2020, valued at $3.2 billion. Resource rents exceeded $1.5 billion, cementing shrimp as the nation’s second-largest export. Japan, by contrast, reflects uneven outcomes. Yellowtail, sea bream, and oysters recorded negative rents due to high feed costs and competition, while scallops and seaweed showed positive returns. Bangladesh illustrates rapid transformation: aquaculture expanded from 2.8 million tonnes in 2010 to 6.3 million tonnes in 2020. Carp polyculture generated about $785 million in rents in 2019, pangasius around $300 million, and tilapia $129 million. Farmers have repurposed rice paddies for aquaculture, spurred by strong domestic demand. Indonesia, the second-largest producer globally, yielded mixed results: shrimp and milkfish showed strong positive rents, while tilapia and pangasius often struggled once capital costs were included.

From Billions to Trillions

When these findings are aggregated, the report suggests that aquaculture’s global asset value could conservatively be placed at $500 billion, and with less cautious assumptions could exceed $1 trillion. Annual resource rents may range from $20 billion to $55 billion, depending on production and cost structures. That is four times the value currently attributed to marine fish stocks in the World Bank’s wealth accounts. Yet the report cautions against simple extrapolation: profitability depends heavily on local markets, production systems, and ecological conditions. Shrimp in Ecuador generated more than $2,000 per tonne in resource rents, while similar species in Indonesia achieved far lower returns. Tilapia profitability varied widely across Egypt, Bangladesh, and Indonesia, underscoring the need for country-specific estimates.

Building Data and Policy for the Future

A recurring theme is the lack of systematic data. Except for Norway, most countries do not collect detailed cost figures for aquaculture, such as feed, seed, energy, or depreciation, forcing researchers to rely on fragmented studies and expert input. The authors call for an international framework aligned with UN environmental-economic accounting standards, supported by statisticians, regulators, and economists. Without reliable reporting, global wealth estimates risk distortion.

The study also emphasizes that aquaculture is not just an economic story but a policy challenge. Profitability hinges on access to ecosystem services such as water, land, and coastal environments. Climate change adds pressure, making sustainability critical. Lessons from salmon in Norway and shrimp in Ecuador show that once sectors stabilize against disease and volatility, investment in genetics, feed, and technology follows, reinforcing long-term wealth generation. Stability and sustainability, the report concludes, are the essential ingredients for aquaculture to evolve from a volatile enterprise into a reliable economic asset.

The report argues that aquaculture has already reshaped the global food economy and deserves recognition as a cornerstone of natural wealth. Including aquaculture in the World Bank’s wealth accounts is more than an academic exercise; it is a policy imperative. With better data, sound governance, and sustainable practices, aquaculture could stand among the most valuable renewable assets of the century, simultaneously providing food security, livelihoods, and climate resilience for millions worldwide.