Investing in Blue Foods: The Trillion-Dollar Potential of Sustainable Aquaculture

The World Bank’s Harnessing the Waters: A Trillion Dollar Investment Opportunity in Sustainable Aquaculture, produced with the World Wildlife Fund (WWF), the Gordon and Betty Moore Foundation, and grounded in research from institutions such as Auburn University, the Meridian Institute, and the FAO, delivers a sweeping analysis of how aquaculture has become the fastest-growing source of animal protein and a trillion-dollar investment arena for the decades ahead. From just 10 percent of aquatic food in 1980 to 59 percent in 2022, aquaculture has overtaken wild fisheries at a moment when more than 90 percent of wild stocks are fully exploited or overfished. This acceleration comes amid rising middle-class demand in emerging economies, tightening climate pressures, and the urgent search for sustainable protein. The report frames aquaculture as uniquely placed to grow with a lighter carbon footprint, more efficient resource use, and greater adaptability than other animal protein sectors, if technology, policy, and finance move in sync.

From Fragile Beginnings to Resilient Industry

Aquaculture’s history includes overcoming once-daunting challenges that threatened its sustainability. Chief among them was reducing dependence on fishmeal, achieved through plant-based proteins, insect meals, and microalgae. Norwegian salmon feed, for example, lowered fishmeal content from 89.4 percent in 1990 to 22.4 percent in 2020. Advances such as IoT-based water monitoring, genetically improved seed, integrated multi-trophic systems, and better sludge management have boosted both efficiency and environmental performance. Governments have been crucial in guiding growth: developing national aquaculture strategies, co-funding research, coordinating disease responses, and enabling producers to meet export standards. Public-private collaboration often marks the difference between low-yield smallholder production and high-value export success.

Two Futures: Business as Usual or Trillion-Dollar Upside

The report models two distinct paths to 2050. A business-as-usual trajectory sees global aquaculture growing at 1.9 percent annually to 159 million metric tons, while an “upside” scenario projects 255 million metric tons, with China’s share dropping from nearly 60 percent to below 40 percent as new producers in Latin America, Africa, and the Middle East emerge. Achieving this upside would demand around US$1.5 trillion in investment from 2025 to 2050 and could create up to 22 million jobs. Such expansion would also require scaling alternative feed sources, building cold chain capacity, and strengthening transport networks to handle a vastly larger and more geographically diverse industry.

Lessons from Seven National Journeys

Seven case studies illustrate how geography, history, policy, and financing shape different outcomes. Ecuador’s whiteleg shrimp sector, farming 225,000 hectares, became the world’s top shrimp exporter by focusing on moderate yields, efficient feed use, and vertical integration, though it remains vulnerable to Chinese market fluctuations. China’s carp industry, the largest aquaculture sector in history, now faces slower growth due to tighter environmental regulation, disease pressures, and demographic change, with most output consumed domestically. Bangladesh’s black tiger shrimp farming, dominated by smallholders, suffers from low yields, disease, and limited access to credit despite strong export prospects. Thailand’s giant freshwater prawn industry leverages selective breeding and government incentives to supply a premium domestic market and regional exports. Chile’s Atlantic salmon sector emerged from the 2007–2009 infectious salmon anemia crisis with stronger biosecurity, sustainability commitments, and green finance, though climate change and policy shifts remain threats. Egypt’s Nile tilapia industry, vital to national food security, uses brackish water and integrated systems to adapt to scarcity, but expansion is constrained by financing gaps and policy barriers. Vietnam’s pangasius industry, producing over half the world’s supply, has built global market dominance on cost competitiveness, certification, and diversification, while facing branding challenges and climate threats in the Mekong Delta.

Financing the Future and Managing Risk

Across all examples, recurring challenges include vulnerability to disease and climate shocks, volatile prices, infrastructure bottlenecks, and restricted financing for small and medium producers. The report categorizes “developed sustainable” producers, efficient, profitable, export-oriented, and environmentally responsible, as prime targets for commercial investment, with Ecuador’s Santa Priscila and Vietnam’s IDI Sao Mai green bond serving as standout cases. For “emerging sustainable” producers, higher-risk profiles can be balanced through blended finance, thematic bonds, and aggregation facilities that de-risk lending and reduce dependence on exploitative value-chain credit. Innovative tools, such as Banco Bolivariano’s US$80 million blue bond in Ecuador, backed by IDB Invest and FinDev Canada, channel funds into ocean conservation, sustainable seafood, and smallholder integration.

Public finance plays an irreplaceable role in building the regulatory frameworks, infrastructure, and risk-sharing schemes that unlock private capital. This includes streamlining permits, funding research and extension services, managing environmental impacts, and offering targeted incentives such as export promotion, credit guarantees, and insurance. Successful aquaculture nations balance state leadership with market dynamism, creating an enabling environment where capital, innovation, and environmental stewardship reinforce one another.

The report concludes with a call to action: aquaculture’s trillion-dollar upside is possible but not assured. Realizing it will require coordinated commitment from governments, investors, and producers to integrate advanced technology, sustainable practices, and robust finance. If executed well, aquaculture can feed billions, relieve pressure on overfished seas, restore aquatic ecosystems, and deliver inclusive economic growth, a rare alignment of profit, people, and planet that stands to make it one of the most consequential investment opportunities of the 21st century.