Building a Climate-Resilient Uganda: Balancing Growth, Energy, and Natural Resources

Uganda’s Country Climate and Development Report (CCDR), prepared by the World Bank in collaboration with the Government of Uganda, the Uganda National Meteorological Authority, the National Planning Authority, and research institutions such as Makerere University, portrays a nation at a pivotal juncture. Blessed with fertile soils, abundant water resources, and a young population, Uganda has strong foundations for growth, yet the accelerating impacts of climate change threaten to undermine these advantages. Floods, droughts, and shifting rainfall patterns are already eroding productivity, destroying infrastructure, and undermining food security. The report makes it clear that Uganda’s aspiration to achieve middle-income status can only be realized if climate resilience is placed at the core of its development strategies.

Agriculture Under Siege

The CCDR stresses that agriculture, which employs more than two-thirds of Ugandans and anchors the economy, is highly vulnerable to climate variability. Erratic rains, prolonged dry spells, and floods are reducing yields and threatening the country’s key export crops such as coffee and tea. Livestock herders, particularly in the semi-arid regions of the north and east, are grappling with shrinking grazing lands and more frequent conflicts over scarce water resources. Maps in the report illustrate climate hotspots, showing the north and east as drought-prone zones, while western Uganda faces recurring floods and landslides. These shocks are intensifying rural poverty, spurring migration, and exposing millions to food insecurity. Women and youth, who drive smallholder farming, shoulder the heaviest burdens, underscoring how climate change compounds existing social inequalities.

The Energy Dilemma

Energy emerges as a defining challenge. Uganda has long relied on hydropower and possesses enormous renewable potential, but growing urban populations and industries are rapidly increasing energy demand. The CCDR warns that leaning heavily on oil exploration and fossil fuels risks locking the country into a carbon-intensive future. At the same time, expanding clean energy infrastructure offers a pathway to inclusive and sustainable growth. The report presents scenarios where solar mini-grids, improved cookstoves, and regional power trade could significantly cut emissions while broadening energy access. Yet this transition requires substantial capital, long-term planning, and political will. The tension between the allure of quick oil revenues and the imperative to embrace renewable solutions runs through the report as one of Uganda’s most pressing policy dilemmas.

Forests, Wetlands, and Natural Wealth at Risk

Uganda’s natural resources provide both opportunity and vulnerability. Forests, wetlands, and biodiversity hotspots are essential for regulating water, storing carbon, and supporting agriculture and tourism. Yet these assets are under severe pressure. Rapid deforestation, driven by charcoal demand, agricultural expansion, and population growth, threatens to strip Uganda of its green cover. A projection in the report shows forest cover plunging by 2040 if current trends persist, with devastating consequences for water supply, hydropower generation, and biodiversity. Wetlands, especially around Lake Victoria, are being degraded by encroachment, affecting fisheries and water quality. The CCDR emphasizes that protecting these ecosystems is not only an environmental necessity but an economic imperative, central to sustaining Uganda’s growth and resilience.

Pathways to a Resilient Future

The report goes beyond diagnosis and lays out practical pathways. Climate-smart agriculture stands out, with investments in irrigation, drought-resistant seed varieties, digital weather services, and rural finance mechanisms identified as urgent priorities. Resilient infrastructure, roads, schools, hospitals, and water systems that can withstand floods and heat stress, is deemed non-negotiable. Urban planning, too, must prepare for growing populations by building flood-safe housing, reliable drainage, and sustainable public transport. Financing these interventions is a major challenge: Uganda will need billions annually, far above current budget allocations. The report advocates tapping into concessional finance, carbon markets, and private sector investments to close this gap. Equally, governance reforms are critical. Stronger land-use policies, coordinated ministries, and transparent climate financing are identified as essential. Above all, inclusive planning is needed, ensuring that women and youth, the most climate-affected groups, are empowered to shape solutions.

The Cost of Delay

Perhaps the report’s most striking sections are those quantifying the risks of inaction. Economic modeling suggests that climate change could shave multiple percentage points off GDP growth by mid-century if Uganda fails to adapt. Poverty reduction gains, already fragile after the COVID-19 pandemic, could be reversed, trapping millions in cycles of vulnerability. Charts in the report paint a stark picture: under a high-emission, low-adaptation scenario, Uganda’s economy faces steep losses, while proactive investment in resilience secures growth and opens new opportunities. The CCDR concludes with a strong call to action: climate change is not merely an environmental issue but the central determinant of Uganda’s development future. To safeguard prosperity, the government, private sector, civil society, and international partners must act together and act fast. The window for action is narrow, but the opportunities are real. Uganda has the chance to lead by example in Africa, showing how climate resilience and sustainable growth can go hand in hand.