China-Africa trade thrives on digital infrastructure and e-commerce momentum

A new peer-reviewed study has laid bare the powerful role of digitalization, cross-border e-commerce (CE), and logistics performance (LP) in transforming trade between China and Africa. Titled “From Click to Cargo: The Role of Digitalization, Cross-Border E-Commerce, and Logistics in Deepening the China–Africa Trade”, and published in the journal Economies (2025), the paper by Borojo and Weimin analyzes 17 years of bilateral trade data and unpacks the factors reshaping one of the world's most dynamic trading relationships.

How digitalization is reshaping the China–Africa trade flow

Digitalization emerged as a major enabler of trade between China and 53 African nations from 2007 to 2023. The study reveals that greater digital adoption, measured through indices of internet penetration, broadband subscriptions, and mobile connectivity, significantly enhances bilateral trade flows. A 1% increase in China’s digitalization is associated with a 0.6% rise in trade volume, while the same increase in African partner countries yields a 0.4% rise.

These impacts are not abstract. Rapid advances in digital infrastructure, like China's explosive growth in digital markets and Africa’s mobile money revolution (notably M-PESA in Kenya), have reduced communication costs, streamlined customs procedures, and improved the transparency of cross-border transactions. For instance, internet usage in Africa surged from under 0.1% in 2005 to 40% by 2022, while smartphone adoption reached 64% by 2021.

This technological leap has effectively reduced traditional barriers to trade. The researchers argue that digital connectivity diminishes the need for physical proximity, automates key bureaucratic procedures, and accelerates transaction speed, thereby reducing costs and boosting efficiency.

However, disparities in digitalization levels between China and African nations have a dampening effect on trade. The study’s analysis of “digital distance” shows that greater disparities in digital infrastructure between trade partners significantly hinder bilateral trade growth. In practical terms, a weak digital backbone in one African country can neutralize the benefits of robust digital capabilities in China.

Cross-border e-commerce as a catalyst for bilateral trade

Cross-border e-commerce, defined as the sale of goods across national borders via digital platforms, emerges in the study as a key pillar supporting China–Africa trade. The authors found that a 1% increase in China's CE trade volume per capita correlates with a 0.4% increase in trade with African nations.

With China accounting for 32% annual growth in e-commerce transactions and having built global platforms like Alibaba and JD.com, the spillover effects into African markets are becoming increasingly significant. During Chinese shopping festivals in 2022, exports of Kenyan tea and Ethiopian coffee to China spiked by 409% and 143% respectively, figures that underscore the potential of digital marketplaces to diversify Africa’s traditionally resource-heavy export mix.

The study notes that CE provides an alternative route for small and medium enterprises (SMEs) to engage in international trade without the need for traditional, capital-intensive supply chains. Furthermore, it helps African exporters bypass many of the market entry costs they would normally incur.

Importantly, these gains are not evenly distributed. CE’s impact on trade is far more pronounced in middle-income African countries and those with stronger institutional frameworks. This underscores a central insight of the study: the benefits of CE are conditional on the absorptive capacity of the destination country, including its digital maturity, regulatory environment, and infrastructure readiness.

Logistics performance as the hidden engine of trade

While digitalization and CE have grabbed global headlines, the study underscores that logistics performance, defined by infrastructure quality, shipment tracking, customs efficiency, and delivery timeliness, plays an equally pivotal role in facilitating trade.

China’s strong performance in the global logistics index has given it a strategic advantage in maintaining cost-effective and timely export routes to Africa. The study found that improved LP in China results in a 1.5% increase in trade with African countries. However, the LP of African countries had an insignificant impact on trade growth, with the exception of South Africa, which ranks comparably high in global LP rankings.

This discrepancy reflects broader infrastructural challenges in Africa. Cumbersome customs procedures, substandard road networks, and congestion at ports continue to inflate the cost and time of doing business in many countries. These inefficiencies erode the competitive advantage that digital innovations and CE platforms provide.

Nonetheless, the authors argue that improving LP could become one of the most effective levers for African countries to enhance their trade competitiveness. For instance, landlocked African nations would particularly benefit from investments in multi-modal transport corridors, smart warehousing, and real-time tracking systems.

Income, demographics, and institutions: Why one size doesn’t fit all

A key contribution of the research is its emphasis on heterogeneity. The impacts of digitalization, CE, and LP are not uniform across African nations but vary significantly based on income level, population size, and institutional quality.

• Income: Middle-income African countries gained more from digital and logistics improvements than low-income nations. In the latter group, only digitalization in China (not the partner country) was statistically significant.
• Population: Larger populations correlated with stronger effects from CE and digitalization. These countries benefit from larger domestic markets and greater economies of scale.
• Institutional Quality: African nations with higher governance quality saw significantly greater gains from digitalization and CE, likely due to more stable regulatory environments, transparency, and reduced risks of fraud or corruption.

Interestingly, the study found minimal differences between resource-rich and resource-poor African countries in the influence of digitalization and CE, suggesting that tech-driven trade transformation is not solely dependent on natural endowments.

Policy takeaways for China and Africa

The study offers several key recommendations:

• Boost Digital Infrastructure: African nations must close the digital gap by investing in mobile broadband, affordable internet, and e-literacy. China can play a facilitative role through the Digital Silk Road initiative.
• Promote CE Ecosystems: Policymakers should focus on integrating African producers into global CE platforms. Partnerships between Chinese fintech firms and African mobile money services can streamline digital payments and improve trust.
• Invest in Logistics: Enhancing physical and soft infrastructure (ports, railways, customs automation) is essential to reduce transaction costs and make CE and digitalization effective tools for trade.
• Tailor Reforms: One-size-fits-all policies will not work. Reforms must account for income, demographic, and institutional conditions within individual African countries.

By framing trade through the combined lenses of digitalization, e-commerce, and logistics, the study not only highlights a new development paradigm but also calls for more coordinated, multi-pronged strategies. For China and Africa, the road from click to cargo is no longer linear, it is digital, dynamic, and deeply integrated.