Mexico's Economy: Navigating Uncertainty and Opportunities Ahead

In its recent assessment, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) has expressed concerns about a slowdown in Mexico's economic growth in 2025, followed by a modest recovery in subsequent years. The IMF emphasizes the need for fiscal and structural reforms to ensure long-term stability.

The report highlights trade tensions, infrastructure deficiencies, and fiscal vulnerabilities as significant challenges facing Latin America's second-largest economy. However, the IMF suggests that stronger-than-expected U.S. demand and favorable reviews of Mexico's trade agreements with Canada and the U.S. could improve the economic outlook.

The IMF projects a GDP growth of 1.0% this year, declining to 1.4% in 2024 and slightly increasing to 1.5% by 2026. It warns that public gross debt-to-GDP could rise significantly by 2030 if current policies persist, and recommends targeting a 2.5% fiscal deficit by 2027 to enhance fiscal credibility.