Navigating the Soft Data Revolution in Unpredictable Trade Climates
In a volatile trade environment, investors are increasingly relying on anecdotal 'soft data' as official metrics quickly become outdated. This shift stems from frequent U.S. policy changes, leading to a focus on consumer sentiment surveys and alternative data sources to predict economic trends, despite inherent uncertainties.
U.S. trade policy volatility is prompting investors to hinge more heavily on anecdotal 'soft data' as official metrics fall behind in the rapidly shifting landscape.
With President Trump's fluctuating tariffs adding to the uncertainty, traditional 'hard indicators' such as employment figures and retail data provide limited foresight, pushing investors toward consumer sentiment surveys for a timely economic gauge.
Though reliant on subjective perspectives, soft data is seen as crucial in these times of uncertainty, offering insights into consumer confidence and business activity trends, despite warnings against over-reliance and the potential for 'false alarms' like those experienced in 2022.
(With inputs from agencies.)
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