1 in 4 Jobs Globally at Risk of GenAI Impact, ILO–NASK Report Urges Transformation Over Replacement

A new joint study by the International Labour Organization (ILO) and Poland’s National Research Institute (NASK) sheds unprecedented light on the sweeping yet nuanced impact that generative artificial intelligence (GenAI) may have on the global workforce. The report, Generative AI and Jobs: A Refined Global Index of Occupational Exposure, released on May 20, 2025, offers the most detailed global analysis to date, examining how GenAI is poised to reshape employment—not by eliminating jobs en masse, but by transforming them.

Using a combination of nearly 30,000 occupational tasks, expert validation, AI-assisted scoring, and harmonized global labour data, the study constructs a global index capable of estimating exposure to GenAI across various occupations and regions.

“We went beyond theory to build a tool grounded in real-world jobs,” said Pawel Gmyrek, ILO Senior Researcher and lead author. “By combining human insight, expert review, and generative AI models, we’ve created a replicable method that helps countries assess risk and respond with precision.”

Key Findings: Exposure, Not Elimination

The report reveals that 25% of global employment lies in occupations potentially exposed to GenAI, with the exposure rate even higher in high-income countries (34%). Importantly, the study emphasizes that this exposure doesn’t equate to job loss. Instead, many roles may undergo transformations as GenAI augments or reshapes specific tasks.

Among the standout findings:

• Gender Disparity in Exposure: Women are disproportionately represented in occupations at high risk of automation. In high-income countries, 9.6% of female employment is at high risk, compared to 3.5% for men.

• Clerical and Cognitive Roles Most Affected: Clerical jobs, due to their repetitive and document-based tasks, are the most exposed. Additionally, jobs in media, finance, and software sectors—while highly digitized—are seeing growing exposure as GenAI’s capabilities broaden.

• Full Automation Unlikely: Despite high theoretical exposure, full job automation remains rare. Many tasks, even those enhanced by AI, still require human judgment, oversight, or interaction.

Introducing the “Exposure Gradient” Framework

One of the most significant contributions of the report is the development of “exposure gradients”—a new framework that classifies occupations by their level of exposure to GenAI. This helps differentiate between roles at risk of complete automation and those likely to evolve through task transformation. This gradient-based approach enables policymakers to better assess where interventions are most needed.

“This index helps identify where GenAI is likely to have the biggest impact, so countries can better prepare and protect workers,” said Marek Troszyński, Senior Expert at NASK and co-author of the report. “Our next step is to apply this new index to detailed labour force data from Poland.”

A Call for Inclusive and Informed Policy Response

Rather than predicting dystopian displacement, the ILO–NASK study emphasizes proactive preparation. The report calls for inclusive strategies and social dialogue among governments, employer organizations, and trade unions to ensure equitable digital transitions.

Key policy recommendations include:

• Investing in Reskilling: Especially for workers in roles with limited digital skill demands, such as clerical or administrative support.

• Gender-Sensitive Strategies: Addressing the disproportionate exposure of women through targeted upskilling and job transition programs.

• Infrastructure Development: Supporting GenAI deployment in lower-income regions through digital infrastructure and workforce training.

• Job Quality Protections: Ensuring that task transformation leads to productivity gains without compromising employment standards or wages.

“It’s easy to get lost in the AI hype. What we need is clarity and context,” said Janine Berg, ILO Senior Economist. “This tool helps countries across the world assess potential exposure and prepare their labour markets for a fairer digital future.”

What’s Next: A Series on GenAI and the Future of Work

This report is the first in a planned series of publications from the ILO and NASK exploring the implications of generative AI on employment. Forthcoming editions will focus on national labour market dynamics, especially in emerging and developing economies, and offer technical guidance for designing evidence-based policy responses.

As the technological revolution powered by GenAI continues to unfold, this study provides both a compass and a caution: while change is inevitable, the shape it takes will depend heavily on policy decisions, infrastructure readiness, and collective foresight.