Global Oil Demand to Peak by 2029 Amid US and China Shifts
Global oil demand will continue to grow until around 2029, despite forecasts of peaking in China by 2027. The International Energy Agency (IEA) anticipates that lower gasoline prices and slower EV adoption in the United States will support oil use. Geopolitical tensions add uncertainties to oil supply security.
The International Energy Agency (IEA) forecasts that global oil demand will continue rising until approximately the end of this decade, with demand expected to peak at 105.6 million barrels per day by 2029. This contrasts with the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries' view, which predicts prolonged growth in consumption without a peak forecasted.
Recent geopolitical tensions, such as the conflict between Israel and Iran, have underscored potential risks to Middle Eastern oil supplies, leading to a 5% increase in oil prices. Despite these tensions, the IEA forecasts that global oil markets will remain sufficiently supplied barring any major disruptions.
China's oil demand, after years of fueling global growth, is expected to peak in 2027, influenced by a shift to electric vehicles and economic challenges. Conversely, the US is projected to see increased oil demand due to lower gasoline prices and delayed EV adoption, affecting global consumption trends.
(With inputs from agencies.)
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