Global Oil Demand: Peak Predictions and Future Trends
The International Energy Agency predicts global oil demand will grow until the decade's end, despite China's peak in 2027. The IEA forecasts demand will peak in 2029, contrasting with OPEC's views. U.S. demand is rising due to slowed EV adoption, while geopolitical tensions pose supply risks.
Global oil demand is projected to continue its upward trajectory until the end of this decade, according to the International Energy Agency (IEA), which contrasts with China's expected demand peak in 2027 as it shifts to electric vehicles. The IEA maintains that global demand will hit its zenith by 2029.
This prediction stands in stark contrast to the views of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC), which expects continued growth without a specific forecasted peak. The IEA's annual report shows oil demand reaching 105.6 million barrels per day (bpd) by 2029 before slightly declining. Meanwhile, production capacity is predicted to climb to 114.7 million bpd by 2030.
Geopolitical tensions, such as the Israel-Iran conflict, highlight risks to oil supply security, yet forecasts indicate adequate supply through 2030 barring major disruptions. In the United States, slower electric vehicle adoption contributes to increased oil demand predictions by 2030, despite President Trump's recent actions challenging EV sales mandates.
(With inputs from agencies.)
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